Natty finally has broken out of the consolidation. It was a tricky DCL but our position is in profit. ( We are long from 2,963$) We have 4-5 weeks to run from here.
My concern with Natty that the previous DC was weak. We weren't able to run to new highs. Now that the DCL is in place we have a higher low DCL so the fact we didn't have a higher high is not such a big deal. Anything can happen here as I showed in the previous NatGas post. We can have a higher high, or just test back the previous high. One thing is sure we have a lot of days to rally from here.
Though we didn't run to new highs we have to assume that the drop to the cycle low was quite weak. We didn't have the serious decline like in the first daily cycle... Natty didn't show too much volatility in this intermediate cycle yet. So I think this is the time for some fireworks here. Most of the traders are waiting for a weak daily cycle and a rollover to new lows in a few days. I say Natty will minimum test back the previous high at 3.846$ and most probably will break to new highs at 4$ violently ... So we are waiting for a possible 20-25% rally.
Indicators: 10 and 20 EMA is about to cross over TSI and MACD crossed over and heading higher RSI is getting close to evrbough but I'm waiting for this indicator to stay overbought for weeks...
I've set all the important levels. We are just fighting with the 200 SMA. At all the highlighted levels bears will try to take control. Watch these levels very carefully.
LONG FOLLOW THROUGH CALL Stop: any move below 2,83$
Comment
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A move below today's low means the close of the position.
so, did you close your long position today? I think we will experience a small rally this week even it is a downward trend for this month.
michaelkid_wang
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@jacobcgg, Apparently the author has closed long already.
jacobcgg
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@michaelkid_wang, see, as I said, close at 2.83 is not a good idea, the small rally to 2.9+ just happened as I expected before. If author wants to close the position, he should close at 2.9+