The recent uptrend in OANDA:NATGASUSD is ready for its reversal based on two bearish divergencies: RSI (relative strength index) and MACD. I also don't see much of volume which would support current enthusiasm of the bulls. Based on my observation of the OANDA:NATGASUSD almost over a year, the price level of 3.00 can be broken due to extreme weather conditions which are not expected in the foreseeable future.
It's time to open a long position in AMEX:DGAZ if you want to catch the downtrend.
I expect the level of 2.9 being tested next week.
Trade active
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I continue to think that the reversal is coming is this bull trend for NG. There's a bearish divergence on 4H chart (MACD) and neutral divergence on RCI (4H chart). I still think that this uptrend doesn't have a strong support in form of good volume and its momentum is fading and facing sideways (you can see it on RSI). I also think that this uptrend is purely speculative and intend to scare traders out of their positions. I remain long with DGAZ.
When would be the right time to open trade for natural gas and is guaranteed profit ?
DmitriTrader
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@Moemoemoe, there's no such thing as a guaranteed profit. Risk is always associated with trading. Right now, due to nuclear outages the NG supply is low. But! At the price above 3.0 suppliers make HUGE money, so soon supply will exceed demand.
arteki
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Thursday storage numbers might create another significant move higher, any indication from the research group it might be otherwise?
DmitriTrader
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@arteki, well, they're kind of useless. They change their opinion every 5-6 hours. Bottom line - I will hold my position no matter what. It will reverse sooner or later.
LeonXZ
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It looks bullish. What is going to change your view?
DmitriTrader
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@LeonXZ, I agree with you that it's bullish. However, when I see divergencies like those which I described above, I am really concerned about how strong is this bullish trend. What will change my view? Well, since this bullish move is solely based on weather pattern and supply deficit - I consider it purely speculative and short-term. It's a bull's trap so to speak. The moment weather pattern change - it will reverse. It's September-October, not January-February. There're not freezing temperatures ahead of us.
Agree with your analysis..opened large DGAZ position and added more DGAZ shares ( as per daily posts at investing.com ng traders forum) GL with your trading!