On the 5th of August NatGas printed a multi year low.
28 +1 day later we tagged the 200 SMA
Before I start the update , I suggest you to read this idea from April:
I was a bit early there, but actually nothing has changed: we started a new 3 year cycle. And in this 3 year cycle I think NatGas is going to break above 5$ and probably will break the resistance at 5,5$...
In this first daily cycle price tagged the 200 SMA and turned down. I'M not sure this is the daily cycle high as Natty usually has 60-70 days long daily cycles so this top probably just a smaller peak in this daily cycle and the cycle top is still far away . ( Not talking about the intermediate top which is probably coming only in December or January. So we have a long long way to go from here.)
The reason I'm posting this new idea because I think at this point one can add to the existing position or those who are sitting on the sidelines this is the possibility to enter with a long trade.
I see many traders anticipating a H&S formation where Natty is breaking down and heading to 2$.
But cycles are not supporting this pattern so most probably we are just printing a trend strengthening cup and handle pattern which is a rare pattern. In this scenario instead of printing a right shoulder price will just rally to new highs leaving behind all those who are trying to short the rally out of a multi year low.
The rally out of the last 3 YCL was weaker.
At that time we almost tagged the 200 SMA at the daily cycle top and started to drop into the HCL.
The decline stopped at the 100 SMA and the BB medium line . Then one more attack and one more drop came before we broke through the 200 SMA.
This year we might zig-zag between the 200 SMA and 100 SMA
before price breaks above the 200 SMA....
...or we just slice through it on the first try as I signed on this idea's opening picture above.
The Stoch RSI just tagged the oversold territory and we are almost at the BB's medium line.
We might be ready to break higher next week...
I think this is one of the greatest opportunities this year after gold broke out of the 3 year consolidation.
28 +1 day later we tagged the 200 SMA
Before I start the update , I suggest you to read this idea from April:
I was a bit early there, but actually nothing has changed: we started a new 3 year cycle. And in this 3 year cycle I think NatGas is going to break above 5$ and probably will break the resistance at 5,5$...
In this first daily cycle price tagged the 200 SMA and turned down. I'M not sure this is the daily cycle high as Natty usually has 60-70 days long daily cycles so this top probably just a smaller peak in this daily cycle and the cycle top is still far away . ( Not talking about the intermediate top which is probably coming only in December or January. So we have a long long way to go from here.)
The reason I'm posting this new idea because I think at this point one can add to the existing position or those who are sitting on the sidelines this is the possibility to enter with a long trade.
I see many traders anticipating a H&S formation where Natty is breaking down and heading to 2$.
But cycles are not supporting this pattern so most probably we are just printing a trend strengthening cup and handle pattern which is a rare pattern. In this scenario instead of printing a right shoulder price will just rally to new highs leaving behind all those who are trying to short the rally out of a multi year low.
The rally out of the last 3 YCL was weaker.
The decline stopped at the 100 SMA and the BB medium line . Then one more attack and one more drop came before we broke through the 200 SMA.
This year we might zig-zag between the 200 SMA and 100 SMA
...or we just slice through it on the first try as I signed on this idea's opening picture above.
The Stoch RSI just tagged the oversold territory and we are almost at the BB's medium line.
We might be ready to break higher next week...
I think this is one of the greatest opportunities this year after gold broke out of the 3 year consolidation.
Comment:
Swing in NatGas today
Comment:
After Tuesday’s false swing we have a swing again. I think this will turn out to be the real one and the next leg up is starting.
This should be very powerful with fat green candles.
This should be very powerful with fat green candles.
Comment:
So the swing was false again, but...
Comment:
We are bouncing from the 100 MA.
This is a very possible point where the drop can finally reverse.
This is a very possible point where the drop can finally reverse.
Comment:
And just as Bert noted below this is the 50% FIB retracement.
I really don’t want to see it going lower.
I really don’t want to see it going lower.
Comment:
Update in a new idea. Holding the long position.
