NATURALGAS appears to be topping out here at the 1.618 extension from the lows which is also just shy of long term magic retracement ratio 0.75 from 2005 top.
This upthrust from the lows has very little in the way of support and I think it will come crashing down soon enough. I think it is a higher degree X wave which will see a Y much lower some years away.
Also current price has pierced through the upper channel trendline and this will most likely prove to be a shakeout reversal. Higher time frame candles will wick through the channel down the road.
Also plenty of bearish divergence seems to support this idea.
On the 4H chart -
A head and shoulder appears to be printing where left shoulder and head are formed from impulsive moves up.
But potential right shoulder printing now is in what I think is a corrective ascending channel which is now fumbling at the 1.618 - has printed an upper wicked double top followed by bearish momentum candles dragging price down out of the ascending channel.
It may take some time to print a distribution top or it may just crash but I dont think it goes higher.
I have entered a short here via CFD and it will be a long term hold I think.
I expect a crash down below the 200 month MA and probably down and down from there, possibly with big bounces along the way. I would expect it to get close to the RSI lower band and will perhaps look to cover in the lower quadrant.
Not advice.
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Bottom of the chart not visible. It should be this.
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Big shooting star today and good chance thats the top at 0.76, although there may be more fakey frothy shenanigans this top will be done soon enough. A lot of bearish divergence just like last top and it will be challenging support soon enough.
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Big gap followed by a big impulse could be an exhaustion gap and another UT. It will very likely need to be filled soon enough.
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🥱
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Well finally after drifting correctively there has been a big collapse and this should be the beginning of the end I think. I've added Wyckoff labels and we have just passed first LPSY Last-Point-Of-Supply I would say.
Up-thrusts getting weaker from BC Buying Climax into a domed corrective UTAD UpThrust-After-Distribution and there appears to be very little upward impulsivity for some time now. Momentum is turning to the downside.
I wouldn't be surprised if there is another bounce LPSY but should be heading down soon enough.
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I took some profit here as i think it bounces
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Hit the low and bullish divergence
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I made a new thread for next short setup. See link below.
I shorted this chart using KOLD seeing how strong the divergences there and how well the channel seemed to line up - my best trade of the year. Good shout out
dRends35
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@Tonpanzee, Nice I didn't know of this chart i must make a list of all proshares maybe i'll give it a whirl on the next short. Should be rinse and repeat hopefully. Thanks.
akikostas
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I would like to hear your input regarding USOIL. Back in 2008, natural gas dropped first and then USOIL. Do you think that we will see oil drop the following days/weeks? Do oil technicals support the idea that we are at/near the peak? You also deserve congratulations for the accurate forecast!
dRends35
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@akikostas, Thanks for the comment. - Yes and yes.
@Admmmmmmmmmmm, If it gets on for 0.8 (you can work out where that is - im using log fibs) then it is probably invalidated but right here it looks like corrective distribution to me. Its a very spikey chart, but spikey corrective nonetheless i think.