Just want to share with you my idea. If you read my past post I'm in "safe area" because market is really extend.
For a quick reference I've crossed 3 graphs : Sp500 | Oil | Natural Gas
Let's compare 2018 with today. I strongly believe that 2018 is only a "small version" of the 2020-2021 Economical LunaParKovid Frenzy.
I was really surprise to discover that Natural Gas was Pumped at very start of market dump in 2018. Those pump (both today and 2018) are strictly related to beliefs on debate going on how natural gas is a “bridge fuel” that can help pave the way for the U.S. to reduce carbon emissions and renewable.
Main problem is the Dump after the "FOMO storm"! Storm in both sense : literal because IDA and Nicholas Hurricane push prices up. FOMO Storm because Fear of Missing Out take aboard all type of small retails looking for easy cash (and empty pockets at least).
However, the only thing I see now is only a FOMO. Stay alert this can finish worst than you can image. Doesn't matter if Cramer say....if Hurricane doing... if China making... We are in an high volatility market. Be careful, don't chase your dream, don't chase FOMO. Just use your brain.
This is not a financial advice. Only ideas. If you are happy with this post, please consider to donate something on my Paypal.
Nice - Already heading back down on the daily! Curious to see who this plays out over the coming days 😄
nikhilpahade1008
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hello sir, im still holding my shorts at 4.150. where should i exit if it falls ?
STABLECOINS_GURU
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@nikhilpahade1008 Hi. I cannot give financial advice. Take Profit should be considered inside a specific plan for your trading.
For example : if you are using leverage, how much will cost you daily to keep position? Did you respect some rules like 2% of loss if your trade goes wrong? Are you overexposed? Did you considered that Natural Gas price could rest in this area for a long while (maybe november) or even longer (means it will never go down...unlikely but can happen). If price drop have you checked some area where price could find support?
Too many factor implied. Usually in my trading I open small position if prices can go on the other side. Every position follow probability maximum target price before correction. Total position are not so exposed to influence my portfolio, so I can manage my 2% loss risk within a longer area.
About take profit I use 2 type of strategies. If I'm pretty unsure where prices can go, but trading momentum was great and I'm in Gain Position I just follow the price with Stop Loss in the back(but gain) If I found a target price area, and I'm in Gain Position that I charge some other position and set Take Profit exactly where I want. Never mind if price continue. I've choose when to exit.
The main reason I take this Profits every time is reasonable is to avoid greed and emotional think. A second reason is only Math : let's suppose I've 1000€. Hope to major Gain can lead my tread to suddenly go negative and lose more cash. If I exit everytime (almost) with positive gain, my 1000 with 10% gain became for example 1100. If I can go for other 10% of gain on 1100 will be 110$ more. Trading with 1210$ is way more profitable than hope prices to arrive at X AREA.
A more risky approach is to add a position if your trade is wrong and you must "resolve" at zero at least. There are two way to do this : let's suppose you are in SHORT Position. If you are pretty sure prices cannot go any further Up just buy another quantity. Your entry position will be averaged. While price go down you can arrive to a break heaven and exit with zero loss or some gain.
The second possibility, more difficult to manage, is to open a contrary position while prices go up.So if you are in Short, and goes wrong up more, just open a security Long. Take Profit when is good. Than wait or open another short to reach at least break-even.
STABLECOINS_GURU
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@nikhilpahade1008 At least be safe with Stop Loss. Those type of configuration can be Short Squeeze : highly risky because prices go up continuously liquidating Short position or forcing to open other covering Short Small retail trap : price go up to feed FOMO. When small retail enter or Long position are triggered, price invert. Price go down for a while, and invert again to liquidate Stop Loss and trigger other Buy or Short. And so on for a while. Up and Down to liquidate small inexperienced trader.
nikhilpahade1008
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Thank you for reply. Will it retest 4.5 levels after looking at Friday's closing ?
STABLECOINS_GURU
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@nikhilpahade1008, :-D I cannot tell you. Maybe you should do some reasearch about what happen on those weeks with Natural Gas supply. As far as I read (I don't follow to much this asset, only take a fast small short position at 5.68 because the spike was too high and the weakness of Hurricane Nicholas became a simple storm).
If things goes wrong everywhere maybe it can retest 4.5.
But if all world or europe supply is too small maybe can be reasonable to stay in about 5 area for a some time or even more(1 month? 2 month? who know?) Are demand too high and supply too small?
Is Russia Natural Gas enough for demand or no? Are they looking to rise prices on the purpose?
About UK how much is Natural Gas useful? Needed? There are reserve somewhere?
What happen in the past in similar situation?
Just google and maybe you will find answers on those question.
I'm sorry but I cannot give you a precise idea about price. There are too many factors that push the price up and down : fear of economical crash, Fomo for missing the opportunity, political gameplay, wheater catastrofe as hurricane in hot areas, rise of Natural Gas request, Uk sentiment about "isolation" from Europe.
Just try to cross ideas, make some supposition.
Hope this can be useful