NATGAS — The Diagonal Trap & The Second Wave Question

This count is built on Elliott Wave rules and the guidelines shown on the chart. I’m treating the first leg as a Leading Diagonal in wave (1) (compression, overlap, and the typical 5-3-5-3-5 rhythm). Inside a Leading Diagonal, waves 1/3/5 can look motive, but the whole structure is still a Diagonal, not a standard Impulse.

Educational note (why there are two scenarios)
The core question here is simple: is the post-diagonal correction a Zigzag or a Flat (especially an Expanded Flat)?

That’s why two scenarios stay valid until price breaks the rules:

A clean, direct correction favors a Zigzag.
A fast sweep above the prior peak followed by a sharp dump often supports an Expanded Flat (liquidity grab behavior).
Market psychology
In diagonal/corrective environments, the market isn’t “trending” — it’s negotiating. It tests patience, hunts liquidity, and once structure is complete… continuation can appear suddenly and aggressively.

The plan (only while the rules hold)
Aggressive: correction is complete and price transitions into a new motive sequence after a clear break of the corrective rhythm/channel.
Conservative: one more corrective rotation (Flat/Zigzag) before the larger bullish continuation.
Invalidation / structure: the key invalidation levels marked on the chart are non‑negotiable. Without them, it’s not analysis — it’s a story.

Patterns whisper. I listen.

— Mr. Nobody