It's unconfirmed. But these shapes are explosive when they are right. Want to make money? Sell the breakout. Then buy back again after confirmation. OR, go no-risk at all, wait to buy till it breaks and confirms. But you'll miss the gigantic %s that are sometimes to be had if breakout happens. I'll be doing both because Im a long-term holder, and have bought more.
From the forever-skeptical-foundation:
I'm more committed to Nav than you probably are. And the breakout may not happen, not making any wild claims. I'll post again if there's breakout and confirmation on daily.
This is still not any guarantee, but its much more likely that it will at least test the top of the structure than that it won't test it. Earlybird stuff but you can see/feel the momentum towards it.
congrats if you just had a nice 15-20% ride. Breakouts _aren't required_ to test upside strength by selling back here. They often do, and you can see in the orderbooks people waiting to buy that. It may also come all the way back to the 8day moving average, which is another skeptics trading plan.
The non-believer trade is over. The non-believer would sell here and wait for a convincing confirmation via next daily close. Im only partly a non-believer and will mainly HODL on. I'll be back with more updates as the week progresses
Daily close is in, and its ...above! Woot. Not the most passionate penetration of upper bounds. :D
The Hopium take:
It's on. MMs like to bury prices they accumulated at. (Read: go up 30% quick and not look back). Our next targets could be larger regression channel midway at 0.0000150 ish. That would put MMs up 50% while you're doing...what again? :D
The Skeptics Take:
8 day MA will catch up with the upper bound of wedge tomorrow. 0.0000108 to 0.0000114 is safer buy, and holding that price tomorrow would bring the interest of folks who dont buy things till theyre quadruple confirmed.
So, the skeptics take has proved, and the return to the 8 has happened. And, this area found itself (so far) support from enough skeptics to hold.
"Bull markets are born on pessimism, grown on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria. "
So this is either the skeptics turning into optimists and holding this support, or the shape failing.
The exciting if! Is the 8 holding and the confirmation of further upside that would be! But alas I'm a little fish, and as such, must wait till the Big Fish decide where we're headed. :D we'll see soon enough
I'm admittedly more in the Hopium camp than the skeptics, and was disappointed we didnt get a more voluminous upward movement.
If we'd closed below the 8 I'd be looking for places to lighten and refill below. Since we didn't I've re added the stuff I sold into the initial breakout. Best of luck out there everybody.
multiple closes above 8 on the 4hr (chart above is the 4H chart). bulls want an above-8MA daily close too. bears dont give a sh1t and are selling everything that moves. a close "up here" (lol) at 103-105 would mean "hidden support" confirmation from back around the 5th-6th. time will tell
..and dragging ass instead of a nice breakout, as we're well aware.
but! Not a break-down either. Pressure against roof of wedge. For days.