LagunitaLLC
Short

NASDAQ (04/03/2020)- Witch Hunt Friday (High Volume)

TVC:NDX   NASDAQ 100 Index
FA
There are huge conflicts among the government system (FED, Treasury, IRS , and Trump).
- Relief checks arriving on April 13th: there are around 150 million taxpayers, but 70 million of them have direct deposit. More than half of the people will receive checks. However, the IRS capacity is 20 million checks per month. So some folk will receive check really late, probably 20 weeks.
- FED ammunition: In a nutshell, money is being printed; FED is working with Treasury for more buying power.
- Business Disaster Loans are being delayed as banks are not ready for loan applications.
- Unemployment claims skyrocketed to 6.6 million. If 1 person receives $500 dollars per week for unemployment benefit. The government will have to spend $3,300,000,000 per week. (These numbers are based on the minimum payment and unemployment claims data as of today).
All of these things above will place too much pressor on the Treasury. It will take more time than expected to execute all these tasks in a short time.
Unemployment rates will be released tomorrow at 8:30

TA
SP500 formed a classic pattern, head, and shoulder. We will expect a drop tomorrow.
Squeeze momentum is going down. RSI is dropping down in 4 hours chart.
The stock market could retest the low on Monday last week.

FED will definitely involve in trades tomorrow, please be careful!!

Comments

So question...NFP data came in very bad...should we expect NDX to swing up then?
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LagunitaLLC Mitchloma04
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Mitchloma04 LagunitaLLC
@LagunitaLLC, Okay. Then I will be keeping my sell position. I do apologize if my questions sounds so dumb...just trying to see how you approach the market.
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LagunitaLLC Mitchloma04
@Mitchloma04, just wanna say, don't be greedy sometimes. From Friday to Monday, there will be a lot of changes, news, and updates, please keep in mind.
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It seems like the market has priced in the rumor/tweet of oil output decrease...extra pressure if that doesn't pan out exactly as stated or if the confirmation of that news is delayed?
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@KthiG the time is the key now. I see many conflicts between what Trump says and does. They are trying to cover up a lot of things, soon the bubble will burst.
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KthiG LagunitaLLC
@LagunitaLLC, Hard question to answer, but when do we see this bubble unraveling? I'm assuming earnings seasons will be particularly insightful, but is there a week in mind where you look forward to the release of data confirming your thesis?
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@KthiG at least 3 months, I suppose. Things won’t be back normal even if the government lifts the “shelter in place” order.
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@LagunitaLLC, when you expect to go down ??
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