LagunitaLLC

NASDAQ (04/03/2020)- Witch Hunt Friday (High Volume)

Short
TVC:NDQ   US 100 Index
FA
There are huge conflicts among the government system (FED, Treasury, IRS, and Trump).
- Relief checks arriving on April 13th: there are around 150 million taxpayers, but 70 million of them have direct deposit. More than half of the people will receive checks. However, the IRS capacity is 20 million checks per month. So some folk will receive check really late, probably 20 weeks.
- FED ammunition: In a nutshell, money is being printed; FED is working with Treasury for more buying power.
- Business Disaster Loans are being delayed as banks are not ready for loan applications.
- Unemployment claims skyrocketed to 6.6 million. If 1 person receives $500 dollars per week for unemployment benefit. The government will have to spend $3,300,000,000 per week. (These numbers are based on the minimum payment and unemployment claims data as of today).
All of these things above will place too much pressor on the Treasury. It will take more time than expected to execute all these tasks in a short time.
Unemployment rates will be released tomorrow at 8:30

TA
SP500 formed a classic pattern, head, and shoulder. We will expect a drop tomorrow.
Squeeze momentum is going down. RSI is dropping down in 4 hours chart.
The stock market could retest the low on Monday last week.

FED will definitely involve in trades tomorrow, please be careful!!

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