The Nasdaq has been in a tight range for 10 years... Let's zoom out.. It's currently trading at the top of its 10 year range:
This leads me to believe it is not too far from steep correction territory - probably sometime in Q3 or early Q4 (2020), the latest. If it does find a top between now and about 600 points higher, the 382 - 618 fib presents a good opportunity to look for longs (it's possible price never gets to the 618 retracement zone, at least not in the next correction).
The alternative view is price just keeps breaking higher and consolidates above the range, morphing a new pattern. This is very unlikely, but you need to keep an open mind that it *could* happen. If it does, it would look something like this:
This leads me to believe it is not too far from steep correction territory - probably sometime in Q3 or early Q4 (2020), the latest. If it does find a top between now and about 600 points higher, the 382 - 618 fib presents a good opportunity to look for longs (it's possible price never gets to the 618 retracement zone, at least not in the next correction).
The alternative view is price just keeps breaking higher and consolidates above the range, morphing a new pattern. This is very unlikely, but you need to keep an open mind that it *could* happen. If it does, it would look something like this:
Comment:
Going step by step.. here's what we could see from here:
Comment:
Hit the 50% retracement yesterday, just 150 points shy of the 618. That may be good enough support for now.
It's clear equities are in sector rotation (when fund managers shift from one or more sectors into other sectors) - notice how the US dollar was weak yesterday and the Dow Jones closed up 2%, while the Nasdaq was up about .5%. In a true risk-off environment the US dollar would have strengthened yesterday. That was a sign that equities should remain bid, primarily from sectors that have been weaker.
It's clear equities are in sector rotation (when fund managers shift from one or more sectors into other sectors) - notice how the US dollar was weak yesterday and the Dow Jones closed up 2%, while the Nasdaq was up about .5%. In a true risk-off environment the US dollar would have strengthened yesterday. That was a sign that equities should remain bid, primarily from sectors that have been weaker.