TayFx

The Dotcom Bubble Compared to Today..

Short
NDX/RUT  
NDX/RUT  
This proves that this is a market driven by a handful of large cap stocks. This means that we are in the midst of a very much distorted and disoriented marketplace. This is the best market a trillion in central bank intervention can buy. A distorted overvalued market completely disconnected from the fundamental picture.

Some that claim that markets are forward looking and see better things ahead. These markets saw nothing coming and ran right into disaster and now they’re simply jumping on the Fed liquidity train again, the very train that got them trapped in the first place. No lesson has been learned. How do we know that? Because the very same mistakes are again repeated and driven to new and even more historic extremes.

21:53:03 ( UTC )
Fri Jun 12, 2020

Comments

But lets recap a bit, just to see if we can find some contrarian view. In 2000 it was so BUT there were indeed less grounds for that. Today we use internet and tech to a much larger degree and the users are of much larger numbers. Hence it may have some more sense that it is so today, than it was indeed back then. So if we exercise the idea that we have robo rumbas and tons of facebooks where we had none back then, wouldn't it be actually correct to have this case? Or, why not imagine, even higher up given how much up to our gut are we with tech (that my phone is like by underwear, if i wear the underwear, the phone is somewhere near too).
+1 Reply
TayFx 2use
@2use, well sure that's easy to say. What other 2000's things we're "revolutionary".. I wouldn't really remember, I was 8 haha. Anyway thanks for the comment I'll have to re-read it later to see if I can get your question, but you lost me at wearing your phone like underwear 😂
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TayFx 2use
@2use, I have a faint memory of the rapper Eminem and orange parachute pants..just saying
+1 Reply
TayFx 2use
@2use, Could it possibly be that the RUT is in a different situation now than the NDX was when there were orange parachute pants and 90 million computers didn't know what time it was after new years?
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2use TayFx
@TayFx, Funny cause i was listening to eminem, i was over 15 then and not trading. BUT it was cassette tapes. No Iphones, no touch phones, PCs are not yet as household as they are today. Playstations just out. Right now gaming companies making tons of money, Youtube top 9 out of 10 cover gaming things. Robots clean the floor, we rent films games and music, not buy and we dont own anything anymore. So it is a whole different world and i only Wonder, not contradict your idea, but to find the truth - is it wrong today to be so, and if it is, to which side. There is a small glimpse that it can even be to the other side? Spacex and Tesla that make self driving cars - lets imagine in 5 years where will we be.
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TayFx 2use
@2use, I hear your point loud and clear my friend! Thanks for the comment. To your point about switching bias', this chart was really just a way to compare two indices that everyone fights over each day (over just a few hundred BP) maybe could use some denomination ;)

I get what you're saying though and speaking of spacex, I will do everything I can do be in this next round of funding! GO BOCA!!!
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2use TayFx
@TayFx, But if you are short, then to what area?
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TayFx 2use
@2use, I didn't even notice the bias was on there, it was over the weekend and I wasn't paying attention to the detail. It could very well go higher in the chart, which I don't think would be good for our "V shaped" recovery
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TayFx 2use
this was simply the only way I could compare the 2000 bubble to this one, while also leaving the 08 recession out. @2use,
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TayFx 2use
Until valuations across the market in terms of a 12m forward SP500 inflation adjusted ratio is where it should be, you won't find me buying any thing especially in the NDX. @2use,
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