Fundamentals not changed, we can still expect 2019 to be corrective, most likely to be range-bound. But now that the market made a strong corrective move downward, we will see how it will develop and **treat it with more care than during the previous analysis.** Still, we can expect some big players to be spooked and take some profits off their long term positions around highlighted levels
After the greatly anticipated counter-rally, we have a good opportunity to sell some of the "buy the dip" stocks for a very decent profit on the way up and start thinking about re-shorting what could be either a nasty dead-cat bounce, or see how shorts can act as fuel to propel us into a new market cycle up, further into the "stock bubble"
Note : very similar setup across all markets, while "star" stocks are under-performing the rally, which gives us reason to be extra careful on this analysis
For example
This is a follow up of my previous idea
Comment
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Very good start, but let's not dance too fast yet. This just gives confirmation that more and more shorts will pile on. However, that could be used by market makers as tinder to fuel a new bullrun or just as a liquidity pool to better exit their longs a bit higher. I am updating my orders, exposure and stop losses for a risk free trade
We just have a strong edge because we anticipated it and thus have better positioning and now, no risk
NASDAQ 100 :
DJ :
Trade closed manually
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Strong gap up on NASDAQ 100, meaning the market might want to go higher after a small pullback. As to be expected from the most desired industry of the current world (for now), tech companies are showing the most buying pressure on dips Short was stopped here at breakeven
S&P500 showing a shy bullish gap too Short was closed here at breakeven
Dow Jones at perfect short value (26258$), in retreat compared to the other markets Short here is still running
Hey, you think it's time to reengage short on this?
Nidalas
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@JC_Trading, Considering we are right now exactly filling the strong gap of where the bearish impulse started off in september, i do think a short here offers a very attractive risk to reward ratio (6700$ area ideal first target)
I would just be cautious of :
- seeing another gap (upward this time) in case of shorts liquidation during a market opening
- short to medium term overperformance of the high tech fields compared to other fields which erodes some of the shorts potential (consider "diluting" your shorts accross different indexes unless strong belief against high tech in the short term)
Jolgan
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Nice to see you back.
Do you think we have already bottomed in cryptoland?
Nidalas
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@Jolgan, Thank you
Honestly, hard to say. It's a long process, with some projects bottoming before others. 2019 might very well be extended-range bound for cryptos too and definitly need consolidation.
But looking at current market structure and considering only current situation, I would say that we have not bottomed yet on majority of the crypto market on the longer timescales but have/had very rewarding shorter term prices for long/buy positions
Due to this uncertainty and lack of established trend, I am focusing on mid term swings (couple weeks to 3 months trade length) on a case by case basis to capture a maximum of volatility and build comfortable long term positions