In the previous analysis, we had an almost perfect bearish wedge for the Nasdaq'. It broke the support and dropped a bit, but it got pushed up again making even a new high. So my assumption now is, it's simply a short squeeze, the ones who bought it up in the blue circle. So, normally it's safe to assume that if that blue support area breaks, that we will see follow through. Because the people who bought it up there, either do it again or they are already out. That's why i assume it will drop more if that one breaks. Besides that, on the left we can see the daily candle (chart on the right is the future, so 24/5, left is the normal index so 8/5). That even though it broke up, it is already dropping as we speak. Which is a sign of weakness. So if we break that blue support, it would become a very big sign of weakness. Should see a drop to at least 6850. If that one breaks, could even go to 6600. The 6600 is a very important level, could maybe even be seen the difference between a continuation of the bear market or that we see another wave up first. My general long term view is still down for the indices, has been since Jan 2018,
Previous analysis:
Comment
⋅
There is a clear resistance now, if this drop is real, we can not break this red resistance zone anymore.
Comment
⋅
It took the US market 2 hours to push the market up again. If it moves above 7140/50 even, it could take another week or so before a real correction happens. It has been the same game for weeks now and i know this game because i have been caught up in it many times in my early years. Simply luring in shorts and then use their stops to push the market up again. There is just no way of knowing when it will end, but it will sooner or later. It will make a big drop eventually, but the trick, keeping the risk very low now and increasing the size when you do catch the real wave. This is a very frustrating game, i know people who have been around for at least 10 years, know what i mean with this
Comment
⋅
The US indices are very stubborn, stopping all the indices from dropping around the world. Even though i am very bearish long term, it's no use fighting the markets intentions. Again today it broke a low time frame support which always produces another wave down, but instead the small bear flag turned into a bigger bearish wedge. This wedge broke down but instead of breaking the low it got stopped again and eventually going up like nothing is going on.
All of these movement of the past week, have produced what seems to be a curved bottom formation. That simply shows, that bears are loosing strength and that if we don't brake that curved pattern tomorrow, it is very likely that the market will go higher next week. The 7140ish seems to be a level to break for the bulls. If that one breaks, we probably going to make a new high again.
Great analysis and true words regarding the delayed bear market behaviour. I went short on Friday 16.02.2019 , got trapped and still hope that my SL will hold.
We will see.
All the best
Sascha
botje11
⋅
@Lilalisa, Thank you, today again it looked like it would drop, again breaking short term supports but again it simply got pushed up again.
Lilalisa
⋅
@botje11, yes again today, big bull day. We will see what the next week will bring. I think, the bot bulls cant push this neverending. I still have the short position on, so its a thing between hope and realistic view, that the bull market will end from the technical point of view in the following weeks.
We will see.
All the best
Sascha