NDX- It is not broken until it is broken

TVC:NDX   NASDAQ 100 Index
Much has been said about Big tech five's dominance on Nasdaq and S&P500 and how grossly valued NDX is.

People often don't realize that big fives generate a good portion of their revenues oversea so technically their TAM is the entire world. Furthermore, internet, IT service and e-commerce industries are less impacted by Covid-19. Also, over the last 12 months, big fives saw double digit revenue increase while others fared much worse.

The FOMO is merely reflecting the shift in investor preference from value stocks to growth stocks and Nasdaq is a place to be for chasing high-momentum thrill. As more and more investors pile on their money in tech company, the network effect kicks in.

The key is to ride the trend and get in when the trend is still intact and get out when the trend is broken. Don’t worry about whether we are in the bubble or not or when the bubble will burst, because you don't own the crystal ball. It is harder to predict the top than bottom because market can remain irrational for a long time. Market always under-react to the surprise news initially, then overreact later. Perhaps, we are currently at the over-reaction stage. Nonetheless, If it ain’t broken, you keep riding on it.

March crash reflected the anticipation of devastating second quarterly loss and the subsequent rally represented and reflected the positive sentiment of fast recovery in the third quarter. Let’s wait for Sept GDP number to confirm whether or not current sentiment is justified.


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