So basically, went back to the time since the post GFC crash. The interaction between price and the Ichimoku Kijun sen throws up some very interesting insights. Let's go a little deeper --
1) The Kijun is simply the highest high to lowest low midpoint of the last 26 periods, i.e. in this case, 26 months 2) The recovery post the 2008-2009 crash climbed above the Kijun sen in Sept '09 and then all subsequent corrections took support at the same line or slightly above it before the rally resumed 3) Starting Feb '16, there were 4 occasions (including the current one) when the monthly candle broke the Kijun via a bearish candle, but not in a single instance was the close below the Kijun. Also, in every case, the very next candle was bullish
So, couple of things:
1) We don't know how the month's close will look. The weekly has a hammer candle that's formed, but that's that. Nothing can be inferred from that except that bulls have managed to hold some critical long term levels, for now 2) Now, a sample size of 3 candles may not have statistical significance, but the recovery has been very similar each time -- this can't be ignored.
In conclusion, look for a close above the Kijun, even if the monthly candle ends in the red -- a close below the Kijun this month will be a huge red flag
We'll talk about next month when we know whether we survive this one. Have a good weekend friends. Keep learning and elevating yourselves.
none of this shit means a damn thing, because if it did, we'd all be filthy rich. it's a inside game and it's based on physiology. mental game, not a chart game
hattias
⋅
Only problem is one month to wait means missing the train…Better system is to hop in and either hedge properly or in case of down trend nibble back slowly to cost avg down and wait for nature to do it’s thing over time
rainforesttree10
⋅
I have not started to learn ichimoku yet but thanks
So @Grazz83 has a very valid point - I’ve been trading ichimoku for several years and my findings are… it needs a second indicator to lock in a confirmed trend (often including fundamentals and psychology). It’s trend based trading and I prefer the ADX/DMI (read:ADXellence) along with SAR and fib extensions to work the odds in your favor, profitably. But even then if the fundamentals are garbage like these market conditions with lots of news tied to it, the odds can really get watered down from 40% 2:1 to 25%, which is not profitable. In summary: be damn careful with ichimoku, test in small amounts on the daily charts to master it but do not neglect its power. Sadly most people use it incorrectly, but oh well, just remember the clouds represent whales. Go light and test test test