heiders

NEO: long and short term analysis

Long
BITTREX:NEOBTC   Neo / Bitcoin
NEO has seen a major move upwards the last few days. As a longterm holder since antshares, I'm very happy to see NEO finally waking up again. But I'm not yet 100% positive about NEO when looking at the charts. It is still trading within the channel and should break through the upper yellow trendline for a real continuation of the upwards move. I think on the longer timeframe there is plenty of room for that; the MACD crossed and is rising and the RSI still has enough room. But because of the long retracement, there is also a very major cloud resistance that NEO has to get through, which starts around 0.0050 btc and the stoch RSI is overbought.

On the lower timeframe, we can see that NEO broke out two bullish pennants during its move up. But at this point the pattern seems to be forming a double top , which indicates a reversal. This is also indicated by the slight bearish divergence between the two tops on both the RSI and the MACD .

With that in mind and with the stoch RSI being overbought on the daily, I think we might see some correction first, before NEO really breaks through the upper trendline.

NEO remains a longterm hold for me, the fundamentals are getting better each time and I think we only know half of what NEO really is about.

TLDR; NEO is going to moon, but not in a straight line and not before a short correction.
Comment: NEO did not retrace as far as I suspected, even though it did break the neckline a few times, but it bounced back each time. At this point it has broken out from its long term down channel and is retesting the trendline. This retest is a very bullish pattern and if NEO can successfully continue this trend, it means that the old downward channel is broken and NEO is forming a new channel upwards.

Comment: NEO continued to struggle with the major trendline and failed to sustain the upward momentum. At this point it looks like a small head and shoulders pattern is forming, which indicates a reversal. This is supported by the fact the volume is waning and so are the RSI and the MACD. The right shoulder reached the same top as the left shoulder, but the volume, RSI and MACD behind this push were weak compared to the left shoulder. Hence, I still believe that NEO will retrace first, before it could really push through the major trendline and start a new upwards trend.

Comment: Previous pattern unconfirmed. Looking at a much more bullish pattern right now:

Comments

Very good chart and analysis - thank you.
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heiders JAGarchitect
@JAGarchitect, Thanks!
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Hi. Thanks for the TA! Much appreciated. What do you think about the volume? On Bittrex it has decreased approx 20% in 24 hours until the time I'm posting this comment. Do you think it might return?
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heiders mikeodysseos
Very good observation, but I don't think you have to worry about a lack of volume regarding NEO. Look at the chart below. Since its move from antshares to NEO, the volume has not dropped below the red line which was the volume when antshares was trading in relative anonymity. Since then NEO has been on everybody's watch list because nobody wants to miss out the next major bull run, especially the ones that did miss the first one. For the same reasons you can also see that with every bit of news, there is always a major spike in volume and a similar uptrend in price.
And I think that a lot of good NEO news will come in 2018, so no worries for the long run. But as I said, there will be corrections down the way which usually correspond with a drop in volume as well (which picks up again when price moves up).

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@heiders, thank you so much for your response! will be monitoring NEO closely :)
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