Well well well...look who's made a comeback? NEO has been one of my favorite cryptocurrencies since I first started learning about this insane market. I almost FOMO'd into it when it was above $130, but I held off. A year ago, I made a post about why I expected single digit NEO if the $13-16 area broke down (linked at bottom). That played out beautifully, and I was able to scoop up some in the single digits. I also posted an analysis suggesting that NEO had found bottom just below $6. NEO actually then had an impressive run, all the way up to the $20 area, where it peaked in June, ultimately breaking down from the ascending broadening pattern (red).
What's especially interesting is that NEO is currently finding resistance in a VERY obvious location. Why so obvious? Just look at the ridiculous intersection of important trends. We have the red broken channel support from earlier this year. We have a major multi-year pivot area in the $13 zone, and then we also have the descending resistance from the all-time high (orange) AND the 200d MA (around $10.95 currently).
I don't think I've ever seen a confluence of resistances like this. Often when trends align like this, it can produce a powerful move. Look what happened with Bitcoin this past week. Its moving averages were all moving closer and closer together, indicating that the market is finding a "fair price" and that a long term direction will need to be picked soon.
Unfortunately, I assumed NEO could test the $30 area earlier this year, but instead most altcoins have ventured down to test zones closer to their bear market lows. Most have held these levels (like NEO), while others have not (like XLM and GVT). Right now, I'm not saying NEO will DEFINITELY get up to $32-45 on a major breakout. It will need to tackle this major confluence of resistances first. The longer this takes to play out, I think the harder it will be. The market can of course take its time. This doesn't have to happen immediately, or at all. But if NEO does break out and make it to my initial targets, it should tell us that alts have indeed been in a second bottom accumulation phase, much like Bitcoin's 2015 bear market. A mark up for NEO to the $32-45 zone would be the first major higher high, and would signal that accumulation has ended for promising cryptocurrencies.
Why do I list $32-45 as my target zone? This is where the 100 week Moving Average is, and $45 is also a very important area for NEO, as you can see on my chart. I think if we see a bit of a blow-off for NEO's initial impulse up, it is likely to get stopped in that price range. I will actually look to finally take some profit from my $6 entry and perhaps set up for a larger swing trade. Further targets are also listed on this chart. I left some room here as well, in case it's about to begin an even larger move up to target $1000+ prices.
This is not financial advice. This analysis is purely my opinion based on what I'm seeing and my own sentiment. I just wanted to post an update on NEO since it's been a while, and it's finally showing some life. It has some serious obstacles to overcome though. If it can't overcome the bear market downtrend, it may just be in an enormous wedge, and it can head to new lows if the market cannot get going within the next several months.
-Victor Cobra
What's especially interesting is that NEO is currently finding resistance in a VERY obvious location. Why so obvious? Just look at the ridiculous intersection of important trends. We have the red broken channel support from earlier this year. We have a major multi-year pivot area in the $13 zone, and then we also have the descending resistance from the all-time high (orange) AND the 200d MA (around $10.95 currently).
I don't think I've ever seen a confluence of resistances like this. Often when trends align like this, it can produce a powerful move. Look what happened with Bitcoin this past week. Its moving averages were all moving closer and closer together, indicating that the market is finding a "fair price" and that a long term direction will need to be picked soon.
Unfortunately, I assumed NEO could test the $30 area earlier this year, but instead most altcoins have ventured down to test zones closer to their bear market lows. Most have held these levels (like NEO), while others have not (like XLM and GVT). Right now, I'm not saying NEO will DEFINITELY get up to $32-45 on a major breakout. It will need to tackle this major confluence of resistances first. The longer this takes to play out, I think the harder it will be. The market can of course take its time. This doesn't have to happen immediately, or at all. But if NEO does break out and make it to my initial targets, it should tell us that alts have indeed been in a second bottom accumulation phase, much like Bitcoin's 2015 bear market. A mark up for NEO to the $32-45 zone would be the first major higher high, and would signal that accumulation has ended for promising cryptocurrencies.
Why do I list $32-45 as my target zone? This is where the 100 week Moving Average is, and $45 is also a very important area for NEO, as you can see on my chart. I think if we see a bit of a blow-off for NEO's initial impulse up, it is likely to get stopped in that price range. I will actually look to finally take some profit from my $6 entry and perhaps set up for a larger swing trade. Further targets are also listed on this chart. I left some room here as well, in case it's about to begin an even larger move up to target $1000+ prices.
This is not financial advice. This analysis is purely my opinion based on what I'm seeing and my own sentiment. I just wanted to post an update on NEO since it's been a while, and it's finally showing some life. It has some serious obstacles to overcome though. If it can't overcome the bear market downtrend, it may just be in an enormous wedge, and it can head to new lows if the market cannot get going within the next several months.
-Victor Cobra
Comment:
It's possible that even if NEO is going to continue up here, it will have to test the 100d MA around $9.21. That would still be nearly a 50% move up from the recent bottom.
Comment:
Still in consolidation, but it appears to be fairly bullish, due to declining sell volume and somewhat steady buy volume. It may take another few days to resolve, as this was truly a massive move. It also may need to briefly test that $9.20-9.30 area.
Comment:
We're out of the triangle but it failed to produce a powerful enough move to test resistance, although NEO is curving up now.
Comment:
It would be great if NEO can close the day above the 200d MA. The zone that needs to be broken is really the $13.70 - $15.00 area (circled confluence of resistances)
Comment:
We're still trying to hold the 200d MA as support, which is pretty impressive. The 9d has now caught up to current prices, so we should see a decent move soon. The ultimate oscillator (red) still has room to go up. Upside confirmation would be a high volume breakout from the downtrend (orange) AND horizontal resistance around $13.70.
Comment:
NEO has finally broken out of consolidation, but it hasn't broken the recent high yet. We really need cooperation from Bitcoin and the rest of the market to break this resistance. If Bitcoin has a move above $9600, I think some of these alts can have some truly amazing runs. We don't want to see Bitcoin continue to fail here. This is a very sensitive area for the market right now.
Comment:
Perfectly testing horizontal and diagonal resistance. The 100W MA isn't until $32, if we can break out.
Comment:
Well, we finally got our correction to the $9.20 area and the 100d MA. If NEO is going to continue to try and break out once and for all, this area needs to hold, in my opinion. Otherwise, some new lows are possible.
Comment:
After weeks, NEO is still struggling at the long term resistance. At least it's back above the 100 and 50 day MA's. It needs to break the downtrend and the 200 day MA again for any upside potential. Otherwise, buyers could lose confidence and send NEO to new lows.
Comment:
At this point, NEO is probably in danger of dying out, if the market continues to move sideways/down. Even if it breaks out here, it still has major horizontal resistance at $13.70. There's still a chance, but as I said in the beginning, the longer this takes to play out, the harder it will become. This is due to the systematic flushing of altcoins as the bear market continues, but also because with NEO, the resistance becomes stronger. If we fail at $6.50, we can make a new low in the $2.00 range (bottom of the large wedge).
Comment:
Alrighty! Bulls have saved the day, and rescued NEO from doom. We are now FINALLY above this bear market downtrend. What we want to see is NEO close above the downtrend. Then it can move on to tackle the $13.70-$14 resistance.
Comment:
Update:
