Whatever the merits or faults of the count I have attached to this Netflix chart, I have little doubt that many US tech stocks are near or at the end of a very good run. The similarities between all asset charts that have experienced parabolic rises is uncanny. This is a totally bearish count and calling tops usually ends in tears so it will probably be wrong. However, assuming I am wrong, I really don't think there are many more legs up for this stock on the horizon with the daily chart tracing out what is possibly an ending diagonal.
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Netflix rolling over along with the rest of tech or just a correction in an uptrend. Not sure yet.
NFLX broke its Phase 4 hyperwave line this week. I think the downturn will be here very soon, starting by the end of May lasting through June
tomj2417
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@Jay6336, So many ways of looking at this chart with certainly no light bulbs going off in my head. Agree though that there seem to be more arguments for the downside than upside. at least in the short to medium term.
ATCTA
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I completely agree. I am still long at least two more weeks based on a TK recross with the ichi and other indicators. That being said, this parabolic move will have a large down move in the short to mid term, I would guess within 3 months time max. You mentioned that a lot of assets are in a parabolic move and I agree. I found something interesting, I went back to see how major tech stocks acted prior to the Nasdaq crash in March 2000. Take a look at IBM in September 1999, through October 1999. It looks identical to NFLX over the previous 4 years side by side. Both large 100 billion + companies, I believe IBM was 200 Billion+ at the time. Once IBM broke its parabolic trend line, the next 4 weeks saw a -20% decline in IBM... BUT the Nasdaq barely noticed and shrugged it off. In fact the COMP accelerated to the upside almost every single week peaking in March 2000 before the sudden down move that began the multi year bear market. Wish I could post the pictures here but the charts can be found on my twitter @Jayatc1 .
tomj2417
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@Jay6336, Thanks for the interesting comment. Will check it out.
tomj2417
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@Jay6336, Hi again. I put the original count in more to make a point but also reckon Netflix might lead tech stocks higher yet before any day of reckoning. This is an alternative more bullish count. Even this count might not be bullish enough!
ATCTA
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@tomj2417, I don't know much about eave counts or Elliot theory but I think this is probably most likely. This trend is almost damn near straight up and even when it gets close to danger the weekly continues to be saved at the last minute, today another great example. I had the weekly trend at $315.5 and we were 8 points lower this morning and it looked ugly. Low and behold it held, again! Same three weeks ago. That'll be my que tho, when the weekly chart breaks its trend /parabolic advance, I'm looking to buy puts at multiple strikes below with expirations from 2-4-6 weeks out from that date. I'll definitely post on here when i do! Other thing to note, just like in the last nasdaq crash, it lead both the DOW and the S&P by several months. And the major tech stocks pulled the NASDAQ down as its market cap weighed. Just watch the big techs and it will give huge clues as what's to come. If just a few names suffer big losses, the rest will crumble within a year imo.
tomj2417
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@Jay6336, Interesting. Thanks for sharing.
ATCTA
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@Jay6336, little confusing, I meant we were 8 points shy of 315 this morning, but still got above weekly trend. Connecting the weekly candles by the closes of the body, no wicks, that's what I'm looking at. Pics on the Twitter if interested