Probable interim limited decline (i.e.: higher-low) at or along 2-4 Line (Point-4 remains unconfirmed). Longer term sees completion of geometry at Point-5.
Consider Wolfe Wave if price reverses from Point-5 to 1-4 Line - If adverse excursion occurs along the 3-5-prime (5') Line, apply Geo's Off-Set Rule #3.
Chart updates and technical notes ("tech-note") to follow whenever pertinent.
Best,
David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA
Twitter: @4xForecaster LinkedIn: David Alcindor TradingView: 4xForecaster
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07 JAN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
Here is what the chart looks like at this time:
The dashed arrow which I had inscribed in the predictive analysis/forecast defines a probable price pathway. So far, this has held, as price rallied to some extent, defining a relative high, and then reversed. What I am anticipating is the formation of an internal geometry, such as follows:
This means that the current Point-4 represents a temporary position, until a final one is defined as per this internal triangle:
Note that the triangle is expected to express internal Fibonacci relations, such that the side we are expecting (right) would represent a Fibonacci fraction of the left, in the order of 0.618, 0.786 or even 0.786 - These are the numbers to consider IF and when taking a long position:
If instead this triangle does not materialize, then i would consider keeping the current Point-4 as is. Still, the Predictive/Forecasting Model has been relatively reliable and continues to call for this probable interim geometric formation to occur relative to the larger one.
In terms of the GEO, tunneling is what favors the probability of a real Point-4 to occur to the right of its current position. Here are the arrows pointing to the tunneling phenomenon seen in both the Wolfe Wave and the Geo:
In the tunneling phenomenon, as in this case, the first bar crosses above the speculated 1-4 Line, whereas any other bars would open/close on but not crossing this 1-4 Line. Similarly, price would return below the 1-4 Line and "walk" sparingly in the same manner - See where the purple arrows are, illustrating this phenomenon:
In the OVERALL gist, we are waiting for Point-5 to be confirmed. Once this occurs, I would expect price to reverse back towards the 1-4 Line. This is the RULE of the Wolfe Wave, as well as the Geo's Off-Set Rule #1:
The Geo's other two rules are based on geometric compensations, such that:
- Geo's Off-Set Rule #2: If price reverses from a 5-prime position, the highest probability reversal target would rest along the price level corresponding to Point-4
AND
- - Geo's Off-Set Rule #2: If price reverses from the 5-second position (5''), the highest probability reversal target would rest along the price level corresponding to Point-3.
Feel free to Google the terms "Geo 4xForecaster Off Set Rule" for other published live examples.
I hope this quick review of the Wolfe Wave and Geo sparks some interest in market geometries, Fibonacci - This is something that I have developed and applied to any price-moving asset, no matter what it is.
Feel free to post questions on this or other market related topics, especially if on technical issues. I would rather that the questions be kept within the public realm, so that one learns from another and knowledge builds upon the trigger of ideas from a prior explanation or reasoning.
Best and thank you for your supportive readership and kind referrals.
David Alcindor
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29 JAN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
Now that price did retrace since forecast, I would caution traders about the possibility of a reversal to the UP-side at this point.
Following are some technical point to support this view:
1 - Price has moved within the confines of a rising channel (thin BLACK line) 2 - A bullish One2One pattern has completed 3 - A price correlation in RSI indicates trendline validation
TARGET: 1 - A conventional 0.618 retracement is expected following a strong uptrend, as the market is expected to convert its bulls to bears, leading up to significant swing highs and lows as is currently the case in this described geometry.
2 - A retracement to the 0.786 would complete a prop pattern, although this carries less probability than the conventional 0.618, described above.
Best,
David Alcindor
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* * * TYPO: Above date should read 30 JAN 2016, and not 29 JAN 2016 * * *
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31 JAN 2016 - Tech-Note:
For those familiar with the Geo/Wolfe Wave, here is a combined geometry internal to the developing consolidation, illustrating the 5 points of each (black and blue), where points 3, 4 and 5 overlap:
Brought at the 15-minute level, the black geometry appears more feasible. However, the blue geometry presents a more probable 1-4 Line target.
Best,
David Alcindor
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Clarification - The BLUE geometry is skewed, with its Point-4 out of alignment with its ex[ected 2-4 Line, so not the greatest example of these geometries. What may occur, if price does rise to 0.618 or 0.785-Fib is a revision of the entire BLUE geometry, wherein current Point-5 would represent Point-3 ... Keeping a close eye on this development.
Best,
David Alcindor
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03 FEB 2016 - Chart Update / tech-Note:
Please, see the modification of the internal geometry (black) where Points 3, 4 and 5 are defining a completed 5-point plot:
This is likely to send price to the forecast heights.
Best,
David Alcindor
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05 FEB 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
Watch for price to find support along this longer-term SL:
David Alcindor
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10 FEB 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
Price continues to rally after support as shown. Expect probable rallying into defined Fibonacci levels:
It has already hit 108 and it went below, do you agree that the Geometry path for point 5 will change?
4xForecaster
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Hello @JatinDhawan - Yes, it should until Point-4 is definitively defined. In this 5-point geometry, Point-4 remains the most elusive, and can only exist up to the angle of the 1-3 Line (i.e.: causing the 2-4 Line to develop into a parallel of the 1-3 Line - In such a case, there is less chance of a 5' or 5'' development.
David
abail
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David do you believe this is the bottom?
4xForecaster
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Hello @abail - I wanted to wait for the 90.11 level to be validated (i.e.: the projection of the 1-2 leg off of Point-3 ... See update I just posted today.
David
A-shot
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is this still in play?
devlspawn
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Hey David, where is this update? I can't find it anywhere.
johnmad
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scroll up it is the chart dated 5 Feb 2016
johnmad
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David , please explain what to look for if the 5 Prime happens
4xForecaster
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Based on the Geo's Off-Set Rule:
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1 - If price reverses from Point-5, the highest probability target rests along the 1-4 Line ("Geo's Off-Set Rule #1");
2 - If price reverses from Point-5', the highest probability target rests at the price level corresponding to Point-4 ("Geo's Off-Set Rule #2")
AND
3 - If price reverses from Point-5'', the highest probability target rests at the price level corresponding to Point-3 ("Geo's Off-Set Rule #3")
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David
johnmad
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Hello David ,
by trying to understand the "Geo's Off-Set Rule " attached is a Chart of the USDCAD Daily .
1.The 1st Off-Set was drawn on the principal of a Parallel Channel created from points 4 and 4' where 5' touched the top of the Channel .
2.The 2nd Off-Sett was created on a Continuation of price to where we are now and also touching the top of the channel being 5"
3.Harmonically i have shown a Deep-Crab with a possible termination of price at the 2.236 Fib Extension .
4.To understand the possible target Points of the 1-4 Line of the Wolfe Wave , will it be correct as i have shown on the Chart withe Point's 1-4 and 1-4' and 1-4"
Thank you for always posting and for sharing your Ideas and experience .