NFX Newfield Exploration Basing Action

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NFX             - Basing Action

Newfield Exploration is forming a bottom from a technical perspective.

From a fundamental perspective, I view NFX             as a way to participate on an oversold bounce in the energy market.

The last nine months have seen selloffs and consolidations followed by new lows.

The price action appears to have changed. The last rally indicates a low-risk entry on the long side is coming into place here.

The downside risk is a break of 32 and the upside potential is a rally to 37-38, which creates a 4-5:1 reward:risk ratio. The stop that I will use is 3 average ranges.


Technical Tim Wed, May 9, 2012 2:15PM EST
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For my own energy bill, I'm happy to see energy prices fall because it saves me money. The pain of losing is offset by the gain of savings. I call that a "hedged" position. If we win on the trade, we lose on our energy bill. If we lose on the trade, then we win on our energy bill. Psychologically, that does give you a stronger position when you are trading. Overall though, I will still watch for a turn in this oversold market and attempt to define low-risk entries.
I assume that the fewer and fewer days at each resistance level is the indication (technically) that it is close to a reversal?
Yes. Fewer days and also notice that the last rally exceeded the previous red resistance circle, suggesting to me that the sellers are getting tired or are running out of stock to sell.
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