Nat Gas broke the trendline , retested it , and now its back above its 50 SMA and ready to at least hit the 2.3 which is below the 200 SMA . This is a very high probability trade , and I think its gonna happen fast . Daily squeeze , moxie positive both on daily and the hourly , nat gas trade is on .
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in the short-term everything points to that 2.3 level (2.325 in exact), thats the 1.618 extension , its the 200 SMA daily , so quite a bit of resistance for the short-term . Probably we are heading there in 10-15 days and then consolidate in a small range for 10-15 days again before moving above 3 .
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From every analysis I see right now , I see the same thing , even from an Elliott wave stand point we are in the 3rd wave , so at best after we hit the 2.325 to correct to 2.150 as the best case , as a corrective 4th wave , the 5th move is usually the biggest and it will probably go to 3 and above . I think its by far the best trade right now , everyone is talking about stocks and metals , and nat gas is totally forgotten by the media and most of the traders . its probably the best opportunity right now out there .
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So far so good , we ride the wave . Its still too early to take profits. We should hit that 2.3 pretty quick .
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There is a chance that this 3rd wave might send us to the 2.618 extension which is currently at 2.732 . I am monitoring that now , because todays move is pretty aggressive .
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Hi guys , it looks like the first scenario will play out . Meaning that we go just below 2.325 which is the 200 SMA , then we take a small break (sideways to down) , before exploding again to 2.7-2.8 and higher . I wouldn't chase it up here , but I would wait to re-enter this trade again . Thanks for everyone that followed this trade . I will try to post more trades .
@kan13, yes man , my 2 cents is that natural gas is super bullish , however its pretty extended right now .
I would expect slightly higher prices around 2.49 in the short term and then probably a few weeks of choppy back and forth action before resuming the trend.
but longer term we will probably hit the 4.00 level . the pattern is super bullish .
peterseliekk
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Still in play?
Kontoeidis1989
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@peterseliekk, I don't think I would chase it now , the move is pretty huge , maybe if it corrects tomorrow 3-4% you can get in but now its too much to chase .
I am short-term trader though .
If you are an investor the bottom is probably in and you can take advantage through UNG .
but for short-term plays with options etc and that stuff that im looking at , I dont think I would add to the position .
I am holding it because I see the short squeeze to continue and see the 2.7 in 5-10 days .
Antikythera_Mechanism
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Large inverse head and shoulders pattern developing on the weekly. I see it hitting around 2.9 - 3 through this winter, and around 4.5 next winter after the right shoulder of the pattern completes.
Kontoeidis1989
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@Antikythera_Mechanism, I totally agree with you , I like it both on the short term and the long term , I just happened to post this idea for the short-term ,
but the long term is pretty nice as well .