SO we did fill the gap. I am thinking that we will touch that red line which corresponds to a couple bottoms last year. The question is whether or not we finally start the winter rally or simply set up to fill that last gap. Today a subscription that I get, had an update for XLR (the general energy ETF). Their chart showed the general energy fund dropping until January 18th. Before this came today, I was toying around with the cycle analysis tool and was trying to find a pattern in the cycles (if there were any). Not really an easy task with NG. BUT...I did have that tentative cycle showing a bottom on....coincidently....January 18th. That made me go HMMMM. Is NG going to have a very late winter rally. I think I will hold off on this trade and just watch the price action. If I am correct....THIS TIME....then NG could drop way down there and have a short by rapid winter rally. Perhaps that has something to do with the 10 to 1 reverse split for UGAZ coming up on the 20th.
above is a longer term view of NG with my cycle analysis. It looks pretty fitting.
Comment:
Be careful....If you see more Chop action in this zone then It could be setting up for one more hard drop. Lets see how the next coupe days go. IF..Price drops below the red line...then you might want to consider for sure getting out of UGAZ and jumping into DGAZ. The gains in DGAZ down to that gap will make the last move down looks small. And then you could feel safe about a winter rally. There is always a winter rally. Its running late so far.
Comment:
Maybe a triangle wedge for the 4th wave. Lets see how price action behaves tomorrow.