dchua1969

Getting lost in the woods

NYMEX:NG1!   Natural Gas Futures
It is easy to get lost in the woods as all the trees look the same to you and each turn you make seems familiar , as if you had travelled there before. But yet, you are not quite sure. Thus, you hesitate to make a decision and yet the fear of darkness coming urge you to make a quick decision else you would have to stayed the night in the woods.

Out of desperation, you followed your gut instinct and you were right the first time. Little did you know the complexity of the woods and just as you were getting hopeful to see the city light, a series of bends lead you back to where you were.

Frustration, anxiety, fear, a mixture of emotions raced through your mind as you attempt to calm your nerves to orientate your positions and make logical sense of where you are and where to go next.

This analogy is no different from trading as you can see from the chart. When you are obsessively focused on the details and patterns which contradicts as these patterns are indeed important, on hindsight now that you are out of the woods, suddenly, you realized this was nothing but a wild goose chase.

Had you initiated your long position at the first breakout on Aug 2019 at around 2.18 price level and hold till now. Your miserable returns is about 1 :1 compared to your risks that you are going to bear as well. All these for holding on to an asset class after 14 months of ups and downs.

Worth it ? Of course, it is always easy to make your point when the dots are connected. When one is on the dots, it is difficult to map out where the next dot will be, isn't it ?

So long as your losses, if any are within your 1% of your capital per trade, then you are fine as such roller coaster ride in the woods is an experience that , imo good to have so that one can later improve on his navigation skills as he sharpen and improve on the next trade opportunity.

Reading other authors' experiences IS never quite the same as you experiencing it yourself.

This chart humbles me and further educates me that Mr Market is unpredictable and yet along the way, he throws in crumbs of evidences for us to make better sense of what he is up to. Some charts are clearer while others are more obscured. There lies the choices we have as traders, studying and reviewing the trade opportunities and hence our actions (long, wait or skip) determine the consequences that come along.

Comments

Marking the close and marking the open -

involves attempting to manipulate the
price of a stock by executing trades at the market close or open

Look at today's pattern trade, once the witching hour happened 3pm EST there was a massive sell off.

This is actually illegal or fraud per the SEC regulations.
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Thanks for sharing. This is always a painful experience =(
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