Update to chart after having observed the consolidation in the $4 Range.
Price action appears to be breaking out of bullish pennant - with measured moves breaching the $5, even as high as $6.30. These measured moves agree with dynamic resistance, as well as major Fibb Retracement levels.
We are long, with a dynamic price target between $5.2 - $6.3. While this is a very wide range, one should expect some extreme volatility, as we return to price discovery at levels natural gas has not been at in years.
We are weary of potential stop-hunts at these current market conditions, and as such, are placing our stop loss at a conservative $4.4, right near the most recent low on the 4HR after the initial break-out and rejection.
Supporting observations for breakout:
- Bullish clouds on most time frames, as well as bullish EMA crossovers on large time frames, such as the 1D, 3D, and Weekly.
- Net Volume / Net Volume trends have exploded, reaching ATH's - giving strength to the move, as the market definitely supports it
False Breakout Concerns:
- We are beginning to observe what looks like potential onset of bearish divergence in the momentum (RSI) as well as volume / net volume profile. We will closely monitor the 4HR / 1D / 1W chart for bearish divergence, as well as potentially hidden bearish divergence on the longer time frames (1D/3D/1W).