As we know, NG has stayed down and storage is at an all time high - U.K. NG is at an 18 month low. Weather has been exceptionally warm in the U.S. the last 8 weeks, hence the huge amount in storage.
My thinking is the following: There is a quick cold snap this week where it will start to warm up again on Fri,,, It's almost the end of this contract...most of the time, price moves up as contract end nears - not always, but a lot of the time. Where is the bottom? I believe in and around 2 is the bottom. It's going to be hard for price to STAY below 2 for long. Sure, it might dip down to 1.5 for a day or two, then right back up again around 2.
Therefore, I am choosing 2 or maybe 1.9 or 1.8 as a good spot to go long - even if it's just until friday this week, then get out. Hopefully price goes up to 2.5 and I take my 500 or so points profit and run.
I might be wrong, but that's how I'm going to play this week. I will be watching price action closely Sun night as NG comes online. If price is flat or turns negative slightly, I will lower my entry price to 1.9 or 1.8.
Stay tuned this week for more posts. Stay safe and trade smart.
Feb 22 2023 AVWAP low price at 2.6 and Y2D price is at 2.8.. Last recovery rally/dead cat bounce rally went up to Y2D AVWAP and rejected(Fake breakup).. until Natty clears this over head resistance its proven guilty innocents.. remember long way to go for long with lot of overhead Gap resistance. !!
kpyogendran
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@HEIKOTradingSystem - i think it would bounce up to 2.4 this week and come down until 2.2. if we see sign off bouncing back 2.2 Then upside prevails. However closing above 2.6 and 2.8 would prove for upside swing.. other wise Natty is going to touch down 1.5 sooner or later.Nat Gas expecting another high volatile week. in the Falling wedge. doesn't mean its going to bounce. Contract expiry this Friday. if Fed rate hike sets the stage for recession hint Natty is going to deep dive in. i would expect to see bounce up to 2.4 and if its rejected then 2.2 is next level of support. if it holds above 2.4 Then 2.6 could be next resistance.
HEIKOTradingSystem
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@kpyogendran, Thank you as always for your input - always refreshing :-)
elenaec
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Therefore, I am choosing 2 or maybe 1.9 or 1.8 as a good spot to go long - even if it's just until friday this week, then get out. Hopefully price goes up to 2.5 and I take my 500 or so points profit and run. even if it's just until friday this week, then get out ------ why get out you need to get in at that low price i'm confused in what you said ?????
HEIKOTradingSystem
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@elenaec, If I get in at 2 and sell at 2.5 I made 500 points profit - that's what I was saying. Hope that helps.