Seasonal NatGas Longs $NG_F $UNG $UGAZ

NYMEX:NG1!   Natural Gas Futures
Pretty good track record since 2009 of getting long in August for the annual inventory build up going in to winter.
Current inventory levels (see chart here: http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html) are close to the 5yr average so expectations for the trade will also be average.
Comment: Weekly look above at 2.15s happened.
Daily close above 2.13s and we should be in business.
Lots of ways to play this outright or with options: $NG_F $UNG $UGAZ
Comment: Forgot the chart with that update:

Comment: Workin real nice
Comment: Another week closed in the proper direction.
Comment: If one is playing the futures, y'all could raise stops to 2.20 or higher but don't get tripped up....
Aug. 15 2019 Inventories:
Release Date Time Actual Forecast Previous
Aug 15, 2019 10:30 49B 58B 55B

Lots of catching up to do.....
Based on the last 10 years, the average seasonal move from August is 127 days long for $1.2197 or 46.73%
There are tons of factors to take in to account, not least of which is inventory levels.
Daily and weekly oscillators are coming out of deep oversold territory
Weekly 200ma is at ~$2.80
Volume resistance and weekly 50ma are around $2.92
Fib retracements also give some indications of where Natty could go.
Based on all of the above, and assuming there is a weekly trigger, the move would be expected to go to $3.25 and risk could be limited to just below $2.00

Thanks for the chart. It seems we are negative after each 2 or 3 positive years pass. We now have 3 positive years, statistically this could go lower from Sep 1st onwards, but lets see. Following
@Repuzel, yeah.... I feel you on that but the price doesn't like the sub 2.30 level below which there appears to be value especially going in to the fall. Like anything else, put up an alert on a level you like and when (if) the price gets there, you will know what to do.
+1 Reply
@Repuzel .... yup
+1 Reply
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