Current inventory levels (see chart here: http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html) are close to the 5yr average so expectations for the trade will also be average.
Daily close above 2.13s and we should be in business.
Lots of ways to play this outright or with options: $NG_F $UNG $UGAZ
There are tons of factors to take in to account, not least of which is inventory levels.
Daily and weekly oscillators are coming out of deep oversold territory
Weekly 200ma is at ~$2.80
Volume resistance and weekly 50ma are around $2.92
Fib retracements also give some indications of where Natty could go.
Based on all of the above, and assuming there is a weekly trigger, the move would be expected to go to $3.25 and risk could be limited to just below $2.00