The Natural Gas setup for 2021 is not only fundamentally , it's a technical trader's gassy dream.
Welcome to the G a s i n o.
From a macro view we can see that prices are now at the bottom of a historically supportive range. The previous deviations that dipped below this range were due to the sentiment as production was trending up. This is no longer the case. Sentiment has now flipped cautiously as supply/demand balance is expected to remain tight.
First, we can see the weekly is decisively and above the zero line. This confirms momentum is going to likely remain longer term.
Secondly, looking at the Commitment of Traders ( ) report on the indicator below the , we see that Asset Managers and Speculators are more interested in long positions than usual. Should be plenty more next year.
Thirdly, prices are maintaining above the 50 week .
Not to mention the that is under construction. You heard it here first.
The Trade Setup
Now, if we overlay two important contracts for Summer(orange) and Winter(blue), we can start extrapolating potential targets. Current prices for either one are at the bottom of the range. This is what large speculators are looking at. This is where I am going to start accumulating starting with Summer. In addition, I am also buying dips of EQT as producers will benefit from stronger prices over the next couple years.
Looking at the August 2021 contract, prices have broken out of the down trend.
Today, in anticipation of a large swing trade next year, I opened a starting long position on the mini contract (QGQ2021) @ $2.78
I welcome dips and estimate a sell target somewhere well north of $3.00
Trading is risky, don't do it.
Long EQT and
QGQ2021 +1 @ 2.78