As predicted, I said last post that price action would probably stabalize around 4.10 which it did by close Friday. The reason I was staying on the sidelines late last week was becasue you never know what the 'Big Boys' will do over weekends when we are not allowed to trade. They sold obviously as we all had a 250 - 300 point drop on our hands last night when the NG market opened.
Just now it looks like price action is going down a bit. Never know if that's going to hold or not once the DJIA opens at 9:30am. Regardless, I feel we are in for some more sideways action this week, probably floating between 3.55 and 3.85.
Longer term, I feel price action will continue to fall back some kind of 'normal' as the winter progresses and it becomes spring and starts to warm up a bit more. Weather wise this week across the U.S. it is a little cooler for the next 3 days but then warmer again into next week. There might be a bump UP in price from where price is currently but who knows. If there is a price bump UP, I don't think it will get back above 4.
I am going to stay on the sidelines to protect my capital for the next few days to see if there WILL BE a price bump back up. If so, I will put a SELL order in looking for a long term drop in price. Stay cautious all - there will be some crazy markets and reactions due to the new varient, countries shutting down and Biden Administration announcing an Interest rate hike.
If you do decide to trade, remember to use a Stop Loss to stay safe and not lose a crapload of your Capital :-)
I should have listened to you, I got in around 4.075 thinking it would bounce off the 200 day moving average, like it did off the 100 day moving average....I was wrong
HEIKOTradingSystem
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@Captainmorgan3115, No Worries. remember that a lot of the time, price action goes through large MA's (like the 200) both up and down. MA's are the average - I think of it like price action rubber bands 'around' or 'through' the large MA's as price action is always trying to get back to the mean (or average), however price action rarely stays right with the large MA's for long. Hence a lot of people trade the simple 50 and 200 MA where they place a buy or sell based on when the 50 crosses the 200 either up or down. Kind of like price action crosses the 200 either way. Hope this helps :-)
kpyogendran
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@HEIKOTradingSystem Good call to be on sidelines on Natty boy slides faster than expected.. thinking it might end/stay at 3.2 or 3$ level and would bounce back.
tradingdiscipline
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What do you think will be trading range until Dec 24th ?
HEIKOTradingSystem
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@tradingdiscipline, It could easily hit 3.40 with the potential of htting 3 even - this is of course assuming there is no massive cold weather snap, then price will go up as NG consumption spikes.
tradingdiscipline
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@HEIKOTradingSystem, do yopu think it has any chance to visit 4.4 in December ?
HEIKOTradingSystem
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@tradingdiscipline, In my opinion, only if cold weather happens, which is difficult to predict of course.