SalN
Short

Natural Gas

NYMEX:NG1!   Natural Gas Futures
Natural Gas Daily
I am watching for two potential patterns. The first (and the one I am not leaning in favor of) is a triangle pattern . If that is the case then we should break out next week. However, I am more inclined to believe that we are starting a drop into a minor C wave down to complete the flag pattern by mid December. Then one last strong push up to complete the larger B wave that Ill show below on the weekly chart. Not to mention that we are very over bought and I believe that the indicators need to settle down a bit before such a strong push higher.

GL on your trading decisions. I hope this helps.
Comment: I know I was leaning more for a larger ABC pattern instead of the wedge, but all that matters is price action and it appears that the wedge is going to be the play.


Here is where I think we are at this point using the 30 minute chart.

I believe that we have already started the final move up and that we have completed a wave 1 and are now in wave 2 today and tomorrow. I will probably jump in UGAZ tomorrow.
Comment: 4 hours chart "Tricky Bastards"

Well I got fooled. It appears that my original assumption is correct. This is not a wedge. I was fooled by the sideways first part of the C wave. I highlighted it with a box. They knew what type of price action makes this structure look like a E wave. I bit. I saw the impulsive move up and thought that we were in the clear. Oh well. I updated this chart with the wave count as I see it at this point. I think we are going to bottom on Monday. Maybe even Sunday night. UGAZ $200+ should come very soon.
Comment:

Looking for a zig zag higher. Before a final drop to retest the wedge that was broken last month. Then a very strong winter run to higher highs
Comment:

Here is the daily...sorry for the clutter but I am not cleaning it up due to my own trading for tomorrow. This is a medium term look at how I think we are playing out.
Comment: NG update 30 minute chart

one last C wave up and then down to fill the gap and maybe retest the wedge break. Then its Ugaz time

Comment:

Well the price action and especially the reversal at the end of the day makes me think the we are finished going up for now and have already started the final move down. I intend to get into DGAZ during the small 2 wave back up...I expect that wave 1 down is finished. HOWEVER, This could also be a really complicated C wave and it is possible that we do in fact move up to where I was thinking in the previous post. I kind of hope that's the case as it will be much more clear. But they don't like to make it too easy.
Comment: Just another thought that's been on my mind for the last several hours.......I was looking at the DGAZ chart and noticed that it has a gap back at $65 (now at $73) which would equal to NG moving up to approximately the blue box area. Also on that chart, it has not retraced much at all and the NG overlap that happened last Friday is not present on that chart...as a matter of perspective, When I analyze both it really does look like NG will move up and Dgaz drop to $65 before NG starts moving down. Also, the 20 DMA for DGAZ would also be at the $65 range tomorrow. Hmmmm?! As far as NG's deep move down on Friday, well this is certainly not the first time the NG has had both wave 2 and a wave 4 both retrace deeply. Makes an analysis hard for me but I try. I will be watching with much anticipation for the price movement on sunday night going to into Monday morning. I am really hoping for NG to rise to the blue box because the move in Dgaz will be even bigger.


How Big?? well its just a guess but there is a big gap on the Dgaz chart and then there is the .236 and .382% retracements. Ill show you what I am talking about below. Jus t something to keep and hopefully help all of us make a better trading decision.
Comment: Keep this in mind
Comment: and this is how it would look with Dgaz
Comment: 30 minute chart
I think tomorrow might be the day we finally bottom for NG. I also see us making an ending diagnol on this 30 minute chart. Not sure if it will break the blue uptrend line or not. We filled the DGAZ gap today at $127. Now I wonder if DGAZ does a full .236 retracement to the $168 range or not. We shall see what the morning brings. Either way. I am expecting this price to follow the arrows over night. GL
Comment: Naty Gas 1 hour chart

I had a really good week trading UGAZ and DGAZ. So from my perspective there are only three options for patterns right now, and two of them are essentially the same so I only labeled two on this chart. The first one is that we have finished the sideways a,b,c pattern today and are about to move down for the final push for the 5th wave. (that count is with the purple letters). The second possibility is that we still have a little more to go for one last b,c moves to be completed early next week before we move down. (that count is with the red letters). Either way, there is nothing bullish short term for this chart and I think we should finally bottom either late next week or the following week. I am hoping for a little more up a down action for a couple more days as I have been playing it nearly perfectly. GL with your trades.
Comment:
Not expecting this to push up past the black downtrend line...There is also the .382% retracement just above. I think we move down on Monday. That's my take.
Comment: zoomed out daily chart

Ignore the clutter...I posted this chart to show the cycles since 2012 and how we are very close to a intermediate cycle bottom date. That date is never perfect but it shows January 29th...However, I am shooting for the bottom to occur next Thursday or Friday. Also this chart shows the black downtrend line I was referring to in the previous post. Lastly, intermediate bottoms are typically supposed to take out the intermediate trend line...We have been grinding on it for the last week and a half or so. So I expect that to break and that should bring us to the Dgaz .236% retracement. I am targeting $166.50 to $167 before jumping into UGAZ. Ill post the dgaz chart next.
Comment: Dgaz
I'm thinking 3.50 then bounce to 5.20
Reply
Ctho223 Ctho223
Hit the 3.50 target now off to 5.20. But only for certain 5.20 if we break 4.60
Reply
SalN Ctho223
@Ctho223, good call. I was thinking higher than 5.20 though
Reply
If we break 3.50 in February contract then the view would need to be changed. I still say to 5.20.things going get crazy during the Christmas euphoria or new years euphoria when mkts closed and ew services closed and nat gas going bounce uncontrollably to 5.20, maybe a little over. Then make preparations for short soon after...
Reply
SalN Ctho223
@Ctho223, I pretty much agree with you however I do think we’re going to move down and fill the gap probably within the week and retest the wedge break out from a couple months ago and then we are going to rocket all the way up to six dollars approximately and then right back down again
Reply
I'll be waiting for that retest, 3.25? I'm buying ugaz. 6$ sounds like heaven
Reply
Ctho223 Ctho223
Where u think we heading to now
Reply
SalN Ctho223
@Ctho223, I’m watching two targets. The first is the gap fill for Dgaz which would happen at about $127. I am looking at the structure NG and it appears we have just a little bit more downside. That should get Dgaz to $127. That should also get price action hitting the long-term trend line from last year. If that for some reason breaks then I’m looking at Dgaz .236 retracement
Reply
So we still looking at 5.25 nat gas?
Reply
SalN Ctho223
@Ctho223, I am. I’ve spent hours trying to come up with alternate views but the one thing that I keep looking at is the larger cycle that should be ending any day now. Natural gas has a tendency to retrace deeply and does not follow Elliott wave rules when it comes to retracement. I really think we’re going to bounce off the long term uptrend line that was established last year and we’re at the very end of everything. Then will get one last 5th Wave push-up higher and then for the next year we will drop much lower
Reply
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