This is a serious bear... I am giving my short term/long term outlook here.
Setting up for near term buy. Longer term I believe there will be another low coming. A wave 3 low is currently setting up with a long side wave 4 counter trend trade opportunity.
Here is a Monthly Linear Chart with my anticipated pathway and target price for a longer term buy.
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Looks like we've finally arrived....
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Time to monitor this market...entering wave 4 territory
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Be aware of this possibility.. shorter term appreciable move up possible here.
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Due to the longer term bullish structure I believe we stop short of the June 2020 low. That means we stop short of the purple channel line. I'm targeting the 1.69 level shown on the chart. That would complete 5 waves of C. This should represent a great longer term buy opportunity.
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Another alternate.... This one suggests the low is already in and we are currently in wave 2 ending in a diagonal zig zag "abc". As with any EW count best to be aware of all the possibilities and allow for confirmation before acting.
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Heads up... This is the current(May '23 ) contract
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Current wave count... This suggest one more low.
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A breakout of the red box and over the yellow channel line will have bullish implications IMO.
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June '23 contract will soon be front month... Clarifies the overall look a little. Fundamentals continue to be bearish....which goes without saying right?
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Wyckoff accumulation event?
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Time to buy? I'm going in on break of white trendline
@mponevar, Entirely possible. Fundamentals continue to be bearish from all accountants. I trade price action only. At this point all we can do it wait for a good buy set-up nd go with it. Good luck!
@mponevar, I see. How did you arrive at the 1.78 price? From my perspective... I feel this is in the final leg down. If you look at the forward contracts(July, August) I have a a hard time seeing them trading much below 2. Although since you are short you've done well to this point. Good job.
mponevar
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@oliverrathbun, Little bit Wyckoff, little bit trends and other, classic resistance and similar .... it can go down till 1.7 or just stop around 1.82... therefore 1.78. Head and shoulders ofc. Now I expect to go back to 2.3 or even 2.38 and then down to 1.78. First short was closed and now I opened long till 2.34 then I will see, but expecting short.
oliverrathbun
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@mponevar, Thanks for sharing. Always interested to know what approach traders use. Best regards and many profitable trades to you!
mponevar
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@oliverrathbun, would like to share screenshot but is not possible. 24.4. was top of the head imho (if you ignore 2h jump on 28.4. which caused false information on gas pipes and similar).
mponevar
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What does "Wyckoff accumulation event" mean?
oliverrathbun
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@mponevar, It's a method a trader by the name of Wychoff chronicled. It's beyond the scope of what I can get into here... Google it...plenty of illustrations online.