NatGas - In the middle of the 3rd daily cycle

FX:NGAS   Natural Gas (Henry Hub)
2598 28 53
We are in the middle of the 3rd daily cycle. I don't suggest anyone to enter here because I think in 5-7 days - maybe tomorrow- we will have our daily cycle top.
So for those who didn't stopped out at the last decline 2 weeks ago I suggest holding the position for a few more days (2 to 8 days). I think the big players will use the breakout above 3$ to sell their position to retail traders.
I think this breakout above 3$ will hold today and the traders who are not following the cycles will buy this breakout. But as we are in the 3rd daily cycle the intermediate decline is getting closer and closer. So all who are buying this breakout will be stopping out as we come back to 2.2 - 2.3$ in the intermediate decline.
Comment: If it tops out I will try to short it , but it's way too early now.
We might rally 0.5$ from here in 3-4 days.
Comment: Good volume today. Smartmoney will exit in the next 5 days as we are getting close to the cycle top.
I think the maximum we can rally is around 3.5$ in the next 4-5 days.
In the blue range you will find multi year resistance so starting to close the long positions above 3.1-3.2$ is good.
Comment: So far so good.
Volume is increasing : smartmoney selling, pigs are buying.
And you know at the end who will be slaughtered.
A little consolidation after yesterday's breakout on high volume...
It's not done yet so don't try to short.
Comment: We will try to catch the exact top here.
Comment: Yesterday we had a swing high but I'm still not convinced it topped.
I don't want to run into a drawdown so the plan is the next:
I will stop out 50% of the position if we go below yesterday's low.
The other 50% I will stop if we go below the 10 EMA. Otherwise I will hold the position till the end of next week.
Comment: We stopped out on Friday, but price closed above the 10 EMA. I'm not going to reopen the position because the danger to get caught at the top is high.
I think we will break to new highs one more time in the following 5-6 days and I will start to short from the new highs. I would like to see and RSI divergence at the higher high.
Trade closed: stop reached: I forgot to post that I closed all my NatGas long positions as we reached the stops.
I'm at the sidelines in NatGas
Comment: I will be posting NatGas again when I see the short possibility probably next week.
I'm looking for a breakout to enter a short position.
Thanks for the update! I'm a little early thinking short but just nibbled, but plenty of dry powder.
What's the stop for sell position ?
chartwatchers PRO pathaniasourabh
It's a neutral post. I suggest hold for everyone. Who is long hold to have a better exit price.
Who would like to short : wait to get a better short entry price.
If you short now have to be radey for a 0.5$ pop. NatGAs is merciless.
We migh top at 3.2$ or 3.6$.
pathaniasourabh chartwatchers
Ok bos, thankx for your view :)
webmiztriz PRO chartwatchers
am i blind or have you not updated OIL lately .... #SLACKER .... ha ha ha ;o) .... it's tryn to a little bubbly ... ..
Nightstar webmiztriz
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FOMC tomorrow should push NGAS on a bit more too I would think. I have a small position and looking to close Friday, maybe Monday
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Thanks for sharing, master.
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Thanks for the chart!! It explains everything.
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thank you arpi for all ,great analysis as usual!
wanted to ask you for LABU, isn't the time to sell and short now with the fed and Japan Bank and as we went very high! (all points to be oversold..)
Thank you very much!
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jolu jolu
i think we may retest 46$ level,before going up again
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around $3.55 will be possible. Lets wait to see how to unfold.
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Damn,i had my shorts today, too early.
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Very nice. I don't see this one not working out. Bearish NG storage tomorrow could start the selling sooner tho...
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The report will be released in 20 minutes, it will show the direction ....
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down hill from here?
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@tntsunrise had it around 3.05 as the price action line. Seems to have triggered nicely in the last 1/2 hour. Think there are a few more pigs to buy?
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going to look for gap up and or green candle tomorrow then short
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So you are still long?
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Quite nice resistance on 2.956 ...
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Bearish move of NGAS to the $2.50-ish area has grounds behind it but it's not necessarily a certainty.

There is also a case for going long around $2.90-2.87 with the SL around $2.75-2.77 for a potential $1.30-1.40 upside move. I laid out the logic as the second scenario in my post here:

NGAS - potential cup & handle play on the daily chart
+1 Reply
rere04 VirtualFax
nice chart and some good logic to keep in mind if going short
Here are 2 possibility's point 3 of the Bigger Wolfe Wave i am showing where point 5 ' is of the smaller internal Wolfe Wave , this called a Rough Wave where both point terminate at the same predicted point
VirtualFax johnmad
Excuse my ignorance, I don't think I'm very familiar with Wolfe Waves but what are the implications of the move to point 5?
johnmad PRO VirtualFax
Wolfe Wave is a trading idea ( System ) discovered by Bill Wolfe and that is how it got it's name , you can actually get a free PDF on the internet and have a look at it /#
VirtualFax johnmad
Thanks John
VirtualFax johnmad
No free PDF though. But the question was still worth asking : )
I am waiting for your post.
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