chartwatchers

NatGas - In the middle of the 3rd daily cycle

FX:NGAS   Natural Gas (Henry Hub)
2599 28 55
We are in the middle of the 3rd daily cycle. I don't suggest anyone to enter here because I think in 5-7 days - maybe tomorrow- we will have our daily cycle top.
So for those who didn't stopped out at the last decline 2 weeks ago I suggest holding the position for a few more days (2 to 8 days). I think the big players will use the breakout above 3$ to sell their position to retail traders.
I think this breakout above 3$ will hold today and the traders who are not following the cycles will buy this breakout. But as we are in the 3rd daily cycle the intermediate decline is getting closer and closer. So all who are buying this breakout will be stopping out as we come back to 2.2 - 2.3$ in the intermediate decline.
Comment: If it tops out I will try to short it , but it's way too early now.
We might rally 0.5$ from here in 3-4 days.
Comment: Good volume today. Smartmoney will exit in the next 5 days as we are getting close to the cycle top.
I think the maximum we can rally is around 3.5$ in the next 4-5 days.
In the blue range you will find multi year resistance so starting to close the long positions above 3.1-3.2$ is good.
snapshot
Comment: So far so good.
Volume is increasing : smartmoney selling, pigs are buying.
And you know at the end who will be slaughtered.
A little consolidation after yesterday's breakout on high volume...
It's not done yet so don't try to short.
snapshot
Comment: We will try to catch the exact top here.
Comment: Yesterday we had a swing high but I'm still not convinced it topped.
I don't want to run into a drawdown so the plan is the next:
I will stop out 50% of the position if we go below yesterday's low.
The other 50% I will stop if we go below the 10 EMA. Otherwise I will hold the position till the end of next week.
snapshot
Comment: We stopped out on Friday, but price closed above the 10 EMA. I'm not going to reopen the position because the danger to get caught at the top is high.
I think we will break to new highs one more time in the following 5-6 days and I will start to short from the new highs. I would like to see and RSI divergence at the higher high.
snapshot
Trade closed: stop reached: I forgot to post that I closed all my NatGas long positions as we reached the stops.
I'm at the sidelines in NatGas
Comment: I will be posting NatGas again when I see the short possibility probably next week.
I'm looking for a breakout to enter a short position.
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I am waiting for your post.
Reply
Here are 2 possibility's point 3 of the Bigger Wolfe Wave i am showing where point 5 ' is of the smaller internal Wolfe Wave , this called a Rough Wave where both point terminate at the same predicted point
snapshot
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VirtualFax johnmad
Excuse my ignorance, I don't think I'm very familiar with Wolfe Waves but what are the implications of the move to point 5?
Reply
johnmad PRO VirtualFax
Wolfe Wave is a trading idea ( System ) discovered by Bill Wolfe and that is how it got it's name , you can actually get a free PDF on the internet and have a look at it /#
Reply
VirtualFax johnmad
Thanks John
Reply
VirtualFax johnmad
No free PDF though. But the question was still worth asking : )
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Bearish move of NGAS to the $2.50-ish area has grounds behind it but it's not necessarily a certainty.

There is also a case for going long around $2.90-2.87 with the SL around $2.75-2.77 for a potential $1.30-1.40 upside move. I laid out the logic as the second scenario in my post here:

NGAS - potential cup & handle play on the daily chart
+1 Reply
rere04 VirtualFax
nice chart and some good logic to keep in mind if going short
Reply
Quite nice resistance on 2.956 ...
+1 Reply
So you are still long?
+1 Reply
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