We are in the middle of the 3rd daily cycle. I don't suggest anyone to enter here because I think in 5-7 days - maybe tomorrow- we will have our daily cycle top. So for those who didn't stopped out at the last decline 2 weeks ago I suggest holding the position for a few more days (2 to 8 days). I think the big players will use the breakout above 3$ to sell their position to retail traders. I think this breakout above 3$ will hold today and the traders who are not following the cycles will buy this breakout. But as we are in the 3rd daily cycle the intermediate decline is getting closer and closer. So all who are buying this breakout will be stopping out as we come back to 2.2 - 2.3$ in the intermediate decline.
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If it tops out I will try to short it , but it's way too early now. We might rally 0.5$ from here in 3-4 days.
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Good volume today. Smartmoney will exit in the next 5 days as we are getting close to the cycle top. I think the maximum we can rally is around 3.5$ in the next 4-5 days. In the blue range you will find multi year resistance so starting to close the long positions above 3.1-3.2$ is good.
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So far so good. Volume is increasing : smartmoney selling, pigs are buying. And you know at the end who will be slaughtered. A little consolidation after yesterday's breakout on high volume... It's not done yet so don't try to short.
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We will try to catch the exact top here.
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Yesterday we had a swing high but I'm still not convinced it topped. I don't want to run into a drawdown so the plan is the next: I will stop out 50% of the position if we go below yesterday's low. The other 50% I will stop if we go below the 10 EMA. Otherwise I will hold the position till the end of next week.
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We stopped out on Friday, but price closed above the 10 EMA. I'm not going to reopen the position because the danger to get caught at the top is high. I think we will break to new highs one more time in the following 5-6 days and I will start to short from the new highs. I would like to see and RSI divergence at the higher high.
Trade closed: stop reached
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I forgot to post that I closed all my NatGas long positions as we reached the stops. I'm at the sidelines in NatGas
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I will be posting NatGas again when I see the short possibility probably next week. I'm looking for a breakout to enter a short position.
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rere04
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going to look for gap up and or green candle tomorrow then short
VirtualFax
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Bearish move of NGAS to the $2.50-ish area has grounds behind it but it's not necessarily a certainty.
There is also a case for going long around $2.90-2.87 with the SL around $2.75-2.77 for a potential $1.30-1.40 upside move. I laid out the logic as the second scenario in my post here:
rere04
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nice chart and some good logic to keep in mind if going short
rudykorinek
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Quite nice resistance on 2.956 ...
Maxine
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So you are still long?
bertcoin
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@tntsunrise had it around 3.05 as the price action line. Seems to have triggered nicely in the last 1/2 hour. Think there are a few more pigs to buy?
rere04
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down hill from here?
rudykorinek
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The report will be released in 20 minutes, it will show the direction ....
xsubtownerx
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Very nice. I don't see this one not working out. Bearish NG storage tomorrow could start the selling sooner tho...