chartwatchers
Short

NatGas - Panic selling

FX:NGAS   Natural Gas (Henry Hub)
3395 46 58
a month ago
I underestimated this decline. I thought we get a bounce before the panic selling. Didn't happen though.
I read the panic selling phrase on the chat at different vehicles. I use the panic selling only at the intermediate declines when price breaks through an important resistance. This time this resistance was at 2.88$.
Yesterday we sliced through that level like hot knife through butter.

A lot of people were doubting when I set my target a month ago at the 200 SMA on the daily chart .
We are now closer to the 200 SMA than to the highs at 3.4$. Interesting how things are changing in a week....

The next important resistance around 2.5$. This is the last DCL and the 2016.01.11 high. (Also Fibo 50)
I'm 100% sure ( yes 100%) we are going to break this level before this decline ends. The panic selling will end next week. And I'm pretty sure we will tag or maybe marginally break below the 200 SMA .
TSI             and MACD are supporting this short. RSI is oversold but it will print an oversold zigzag before this decline ends.
So we are on day 1 of the panic selling . If my calculation is right it's going to bottom next week Tuesday or Wednesday.

Don't forget when this decline ends I will enter heavily in longs , this will be a fantastic buying opportunity.


a month ago
Comment: DAY 2 of panic selling.
Lower low again.
snapshot
a month ago
Comment: At the end of this panic selling nobody will be long.
Everybody will be talking about sub 1$ NatGas prices.
a month ago
Comment: I'm trading CFD in Natural gas. Above on the picture is the Henry Hub Natural Gas.
Yesterday before the close we had a pop in US NAtural Gas December. But it was only an hourly pop from 2.960 to 3.060. The continuous contract doesn't contain today's big green candle on my trading platform what we have in Natural Gas (Henry Hub).
We are still in the panic selling.
a month ago
Comment: It's the second day when we print a green candle.
In the panic selling should not be more than one green candle, and most of the cases not even one.
Though I still think this decline not finished I'm going to take profits on half of the NatGas positions.If we have a bounce NatGas could be very volatile so I will book some profits here. I will update NatGas on the weekend.
snapshot
a month ago
Comment: Working on the update here.
Just give me 10 minutes.
We will be entering to the panic selling soon.
a month ago
Trade closed: stop reached
Will you close the short before Thursday's EIA ?? That's the million dollar question that I have in my mind.... to close the PUTS before EIA or risk it and close them after the report....
Reply
toothless
a month ago
100% on board with you. MAHALOS
Reply
Cheetsbaby84
a month ago
I was hoping for a dead cat bounce to enter DGAZ early this week as per your instructions since I had missed entry. Is it still good to enter or am I chasing the trade now?
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xsubtownerx
a month ago
Agreed. Panic selling is the best time to buy for new longs. I'm patiently waiting for a nice hammer, doji or spinning top on the weekly to start a position. You should take a look at the weekly as well. A lot of room on the down side still. MACD only now crossed... We could potentially see another week like this next week.
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Gar3th PRO
a month ago
Nice work Arpi
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Ronnee
a month ago
Excellent APRi , thanks for update...will hold now..shifted SLs to good profits. Hope you making truckloads as payback for your work! Will follow you into longs, cheers Ron NZ
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watsonzou26
a month ago
I underestimated this falling, too. What a drop today!
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fshabani
a month ago
This is the biggest bear trap of all bear traps
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AlexTrik fshabani
a month ago
Do you know what a bear trap is?
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traderzaius
a month ago
look for weekly oversold (RSI 5) as take profit zone
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al.calgary
a month ago
Did you check the December contract? it is around 3.25$. Much higher than the Nov. price which is going to be expired in 2 days. What do you think?
+1 Reply
AlexTrik al.calgary
a month ago
The spread should close (Dec will meet Nov)
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Ta-Trade
a month ago
Nice work m8!
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archer08
a month ago
Wow. Sounds great. Hopefully , NGAS can get to 2.5 so can hop in the wagon with MM.
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DS77
a month ago
Playing out perfectly... press on!
My only thought now is if 2.40 is the bottom. We get warm winter predictions and I'll give pause to closing shorts and getting long immediately. Could see a delay in the NG rally off the 200d. We shall see... looking good from here though.
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Really enjoy your charts, great work, you have got talent!
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bertcoin PRO
a month ago
And I will be backing up the UGAZ truck with the profits from DGAZ. Thank you Arpi!
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XTAL.ball
a month ago
When do we hit the bottom?
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ma.sanjuy
a month ago
Arpil... at what price do you suggest to long??? same price - when you are squaring off against the shorts ?? or something lower than that ?
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rere04
a month ago
sub 1$ is that even possible? or is the target still around 2.4 2.5?
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Is this a bull trap, or is this bounce off the trend line going to hold after report tomorrow? Thanks!
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DS77
a month ago
Simply a bounce? I am guessing so, but we should see tomorrow.
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DS77
a month ago
Options for November just expired which likely caused / contributed to the bounce we just saw off the trend line and 200EMA above
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Ronnee
a month ago
Wow what happened!! Glad shifted in tight stops,! Am out but great profits..thanks APRi , Maybe was a bear trap!! Going to wait until things settle back...what causes sudden movement like that?.
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Ta-Trade
a month ago
Now panic buying buy stops being triggered? did you trail your S/L or partly close some of your pos?

What a move

Bear trap!!
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ma.sanjuy
a month ago
tks for clarification Arpil.
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Mitasse
a month ago
I was looking at the december contracts (NGZ2016 COMMODITIES FUTURES CHART) chart (was not paying attention before as I was only looking at Henry Hub) and we did tag the 200 MA. Given this tag, wouldn't that make the DCL very close from here ? The contango thing makes this hole story very complicated , Thank you in advance.
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bhowe
a month ago
Arpi, looks like NAT GAS hit your trend line, the sell maybe over?
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Superkloton
a month ago
This is peculiar. How does it come to this big difference in instruments? How do we go from here to analyse the charts? Which one counts, the one with the pop or the one without? Feeling lost here, any clarification would be greatly welcomed.
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DS77 Superkloton
a month ago
EIA data release was neutral to bearish.. but NG looks slightly confused
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Superkloton DS77
a month ago
Absolutely, I don’t get how the charts can be so different. The values are completely apart now.
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DS77 Superkloton
a month ago
Think it depends on what vehicle your using to trade NG. The idea remains the same, but this does get tricky when you consider contract rollover , options expiration yesterday, DGAZ / UGAZ , etc.
+1 Reply
Superkloton DS77
a month ago
The expiration yesterday might just be the reason, I didn’t have this on the radar. Thanks.
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DS77 Superkloton
a month ago
It was at 2:30edt which is right when we saw that big move. Kind of a weird time on the calendar for NG... money to be made, but a lot of moving parts.
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desmondlang123
a month ago
Some big player bought a huge amount of contracts on the open bell. Looks like NGAS bull is back in the game.
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Superkloton desmondlang123
a month ago
No. My CFD vehicle didn’t move a bit - while NGAS December popped, CFDs went just sideways. I think it has to do with the options expiration yesterday that took place exactly when the pop appeared - on some instruments. It created a gap between futures/options and continuous contracts.
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sweetcheese
a month ago
Always trade with the newest contract. Regard the pop/contract expiration as opening price. The short train is already gone.
NGAS bull is back on rail. Long FTW.
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TexasTower85
a month ago
Have your thoughts changed on this at all? We had a daily swing high, RSI, MACD and Stochastic have turned, are we still going down from here you think or is it time to take profits?
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jinyuji210
a month ago
how do you think of the GAS for next week? Is still there a room to drop? Thanks~
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bertcoin PRO
a month ago
Thanks for the update. I was getting nervous about my profits too and bailed out. Good profits - thank you for all your advice on this one! Looking for the next "clear" move up... :)
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watsonzou26
a month ago
We see NG rolling into Dec. contract yesterday.
NG: rolling into Dec.
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yegornaut
a month ago
Waiting for your update, Chartwatchers
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yegornaut
a month ago
Better to say CRAVING your update :-)
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jinyuji210
a month ago
hello sir, any update on the gas? Thanks
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val_trader
a month ago
Hi Arpi, we really need an update from you, please.
After a spike, it seems we're back in the bearish channel
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ma.sanjuy
a month ago
GM Arpil... now that you have closed your shorts, is it a good time to go Long ?
Reply
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