FX:NGAS   Natural Gas (Henry Hub)
1655 24 44
It's going to be a neutral post. I will update NatGas here till I enter the short position.
It's way too early to go short here in Natty. The earliest I will sell into this vehicle is the end of next week.
Why?
1. Volume is decreasing. I'm not going to sell into a decreasing volume . If a big player starts to accumulate we will get caught wit hour shorts.
2. Timewise we can easily rally next week.
3. It's forming a coil.
4. Possible ICL is coming.

There is no need to explain the first 2 points.
Coil is a kind of range what we are having in the last 5 days. One day up , one day down, one day up, next is down again. Usually coils are breaking to one direction which is a false breakout and very soon price reverses and goes to the other direction. I would like to sell into the breakout from the coil.

It's very possible that this DCL will be the intermediate cycle low. NatGas has a very complicated and manipulated cycle I don't want to go too deep in this here, on my website you will find a lot of information about NatGas cycles. What is important here if we go down to the ICL smartmoney doesn't want to be in this decline because it's going to be a tough decline. So they will get rid of their positions. At the previous top at 3.1$ the volume was not high enough for a smartmoney exit. I think now we are building the early shorts who will be stopped out in the breakout of the coil. In the breakout sentiment will become super bullish everybody and his dog will be long Natty for the winter. Smartmoney will exit positions and we start to go down to the ICL.
That is the point I want to enter. I want to sell with the big players


I will update NatGas at this post till the short opportunity comes.
Comment: New day, same pattern , old story:
Sell the breakout.
snapshot
Comment: We are getting late in the daily cycle and if I'M right it's going to be the intermediate decline. So all longs should exit at this breakout this week or early next week.
Comment: I will launch a new post when time comes for a short.
Comment: We are almost there. Volume is increasing.
I think tomorrow we will get the breakout.
Get ready.
snapshot
Comment: We are almost there.
Maybe today maybe tomorrow.
I might start to sell above 3.1$.
snapshot
Comment: Watch the volume. Big players want to exit in the breakout euphoria.
They are selling when retail is happy. And buying when retail is nervous and want to die.
been waiting :) thanx... hows ur website coming along btw?
+2 Reply
WEBSITE!!
+3 Reply
what is your website? sir~
+3 Reply
SebastianRasch jinyuji210
Yes I was wondering that as well - what’s your website, Arpi?
+1 Reply
Great analysis, Master!
+1 Reply
thank you arpi , you spoke about your website..what is its URL please ?
Thank u in advance!
+1 Reply
I've just come upon your Natural Gas commentary and find it fascinating. My understanding is that NatGas is the most difficult commodity vehicle to trade. That does not deter you? Perhaps search for 'easier' opportunities elsewhere? Please accept my appreciation for being able to view your expertise in action regards this Natural Gas price gyration. Thank You, Sir!
+1 Reply
I have been waiting for the updates. Thanks.
+1 Reply
Made some reasonably good money on DGAZ so far, and lightened up the position (took some profits) on your coil idea. Looks like we'll retest @tntsunrise's entry point and looking to add more when you're ready as well. Thanks Arpi!
+1 Reply
I think you lightened at the good time Bert.
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good to see u still here robin hood. Please do not let a few spoil it for the many .... i for one love all the time and effort u put into your posts... have learned a ton from you ... thank you my friend :) Cant you block the haters?
+2 Reply
UNLIMITED is limited now. ;)
+2 Reply
Bjorn was eaten alive when he went long at 1317$.
So we are done with the haters.
+1 Reply
webmiztriz PRO chartwatchers
:-D
Reply
epalazzo webmiztriz
or just ignore them, soon they will be speaking with themselves.
+1 Reply
that too... ;)
+1 Reply
Looks like that last push is coming in NG. Perhaps the hurricane coming through will help give it one last push Friday into early next week. This should set up a nice level to short from as we enter shoulder season.
+1 Reply
this hurricane def helped push the price up.
+1 Reply
@chartwatchers how do You think to enter in SHOR from which price 3,2 ?
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Tomorrow is Saturday! ;)
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Tomorrow= Monday.
LOL
I'm lost in counting the weekdays.
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Looks like its breaking out today...!
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what about the structure. NGAS gap down 12/2014. 3.359 becomes the big resistance. I would like to know your input. Thanks
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