It's way too early to go short here in Natty. The earliest I will sell into this vehicle is the end of next week.
1. is decreasing. I'm not going to sell into a decreasing . If a big player starts to accumulate we will get caught wit hour shorts.
2. Timewise we can easily rally next week.
3. It's forming a coil.
4. Possible ICL is coming.
There is no need to explain the first 2 points.
Coil is a kind of range what we are having in the last 5 days. One day up , one day down, one day up, next is down again. Usually coils are breaking to one direction which is a false breakout and very soon price reverses and goes to the other direction. I would like to sell into the breakout from the coil.
It's very possible that this DCL will be the intermediate cycle low. NatGas has a very complicated and manipulated cycle I don't want to go too deep in this here, on my website you will find a lot of information about NatGas cycles. What is important here if we go down to the ICL smartmoney doesn't want to be in this decline because it's going to be a tough decline. So they will get rid of their positions. At the previous top at 3.1$ the was not high enough for a smartmoney exit. I think now we are building the early shorts who will be stopped out in the breakout of the coil. In the breakout sentiment will become super everybody and his dog will be long Natty for the winter. Smartmoney will exit positions and we start to go down to the ICL.
That is the point I want to enter. I want to sell with the big players
I will update NatGas at this post till the short opportunity comes.
Sell the breakout.
I think tomorrow we will get the breakout.
Maybe today maybe tomorrow.
I might start to sell above 3.1$.
They are selling when retail is happy. And buying when retail is nervous and want to die.