4xForecaster

Nears Bottom; Model Offers Bullish Targets | #gas $NGAS #oil

FX:NGAS   Natural Gas (Henry Hub)
Friends,

Natural gas             ($NGAS) is coming to a technical floor per Elliott Wave count as well as predictive/forecasting model.


WAVE ANALYSIS:

- ELLIOTT WAVE:

Price action in this 8-hour chart illustrates a recent down-swing consistent with an Bearish Elliott Wave impulse, whose internal construction suggests a near completion, as price appears to negotiate a 5th wave conclusion.


- WOLFE WAVES:

Standing in the background appears to be a Wolfe Wave pattern, engulfing the entire Elliott Wave construct. In its most basic form, Bill Wolfe's Wolfe Waves requires that:

1 - Waves 1-3 and 2-4 be declining in the same direction (here: down)
2 - Waves 2-4 be converging
and that:
3 - Point-4 be situated between Points 1 and 2, although this would only belong to the strictest definition, and these are empirical observations, as there is no formal literature from its author on this advanced pattern.


PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS & FORECASTING:

The predictive/forecasting model is calling for a bottom-most tolerable support as the "Lox" target (i.e.: extreme low value), defined as:

- TG-Lox = 2.542 - 28 JAN 2015

Model also offers the following ensuing bullish NUMERICAL targets:

1 - TG-1 = 3.285 - 28 JAN 2015

and

2 - TG-2 = 3.798 - 28 JAN 2015

... as well as this top-most NOMINAL target:

- TG-Hi = 4.343 - 28 JAN 2015


OVERALL:

An interim decline should serve to complete a set of background geometries. However, a reaction to the top-side is likely to prop price up to the defined targets. Directional indicator will remain NEUTRAL until this last fifth wave concludes.

Stay tuned,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA


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Twitter:
@4xForecaster
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Last successful $NGAS forecast:
-
Bearish Reversal Confirmation | $NGAS #NaturalGas

-
Update: Targets Hit; Unwinding | $NGAS #naturalgas

-
NGAS - Nearing Significant Technical Level at 5.789
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: admin@KADAInstitute.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
29 JAN 2015 - Update:

From Twitter:
----------
$NGAS readies for #elliottwave 5th wave completion (black); Wolfe Wave lurks (blue):

snapshot


@tradingview #oilandgas #NGAS
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David Alcindor
Reply
AlphaxRx
2 years ago
David,

Thanks for your generosity in sharing the info.

In a larger timeframe stretching back to the beginning of 2014. The natural gas price has been on a steady decline after the Feb 2014. To me, it has completed the fifth wave down at the end of december. Waves that followed it are corrective waves. If you can provide your wave count on longer timeframe would be greatly appreciated.

Natural gas price is fundamentally determined by 1. onshore/offshore rig counts in north america 2. temperature in Canada and US. The rig counts have been on a free-fall since december because of companies halted their exploration swiftly, there's no questions about that. Also, mother nature has been kind to us with warm weather. The bearish conditions took the price to the levels we see today.

I am quite surprise at the bearish action throughout this month, natgas bulls need to make a good push up in the next two weeks to shake-off persistent bearish sentiments. Do you think it can go much lower ?

+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO AlphaxRx
2 years ago
Hello @AlphaxRx - Thank you for the kind comments.

$NGAS has limited data in here, and I looked at the data off of stockcharts.com to pull a monthly chart dating back to 1990. Overall, price has done parabolic advances in ways that reveal its underlying cyclical nature, not in terms of seasons - as these parabolas have occurred across multiple years - but in terms of some other conditions that is likely known by some knowledgeable persons on fundamental topics.

I was not able to apply the model therein, so it leaves me with little objective interpretation. All I can say for now is that $NGAS is nearing a solid base from which a rally is probable - The base is the one I have offered in the H4 chart.

Still, this is a bit too small of a timeframe for these large commodities, and I would have liked to have more data to infer a more solid predictive/forecasting information.

David
Reply
AlphaxRx 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Have you search for "NG1" - this symbol gives historical price of natural gas. You can also look into "UNG" that is the natural gas ETF. You may have better time charting with those symbols than NGAS
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO AlphaxRx
2 years ago
Hello @AlphaRx - Yes, I have looked at the chart, but $NGAS is one for which I have received most interests/requests - David
Reply
AlphaxRx 4xForecaster
2 years ago
I am very bullish on all the energy commodity long-term. It's a buyer's market right now with many choices.

Energy will always play a role in one form or another. Alternative energy is not enough offset the long-term demand.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO AlphaxRx
2 years ago
Very true - David
Reply
30 JAN 2015 - Update:

From Twitter:
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$NGAS: Protective floor < 2.332 - Price moves as forecast; Last Target nears:

snapshot


@tradingview #naturalgas #oilandgas
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David Alcindor
+1 Reply
02 FEB 2015 - Update:

From Twitter:
----------
$NGAS carves lower low; Opens floor to basest target:

snapshot


via @tradingview $natgas #oilandgas #naturalgas $UNG
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David Alcindor
Reply
03 FEB 2015 - Update:

From Twitter:
----------
$NGAS - Expecting further decline in #naturalgas price before rallying occurs:

snapshot


@tradingview #oilandgas $UNG
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snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
04 FEB 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/Linked-In:
----------
$NGAS mulls 5th #elliottwave completion; Dominant WW in backgrnd:

snapshot


tradingview #natgas #gas #oilandgas
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David Alcindor
Reply
luke1827 PRO
2 years ago
Hi David,

How did you arrive at your TG-Lox price level?

Luke
Reply
4xForecaster PRO luke1827
2 years ago
Hello @luke1827 - I use a proprietary predictive/forecasting model in this any most other charts - I will reveal any coincidental patterns and technical events in support of the targets, but I cannot reveal the model itself - David
Reply
AlphaxRx
2 years ago
Boston snowfall sets historical record
http://mashable.com/2015/02/09/new-england-snow-storm/

Polar arctic air with life-threatening cold
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/polar-plunge-to-deliver-coldes/41944398
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO AlphaxRx
2 years ago
Hello @AlphaxRx - These reports will definitely set the tone for this weather-sensitive commodity. No question about it - David
Reply
13 FEB 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/Linked-In:
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$NGAS likely bottomed near 2.542; Limited downside; Bullish targets intact:

snapshot


@tradingview #oilandgas #naturalgas
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David Alcindor
Reply
AlphaxRx 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Hello,

Last Wednesday - Thursday most likely is the intermediate bottom. Next few weeks is promising for natgas bulls.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO AlphaxRx
2 years ago
@AlphaxRx - Okay. What do you mean?
Reply
AlphaxRx 4xForecaster
2 years ago
I mean we can begin to see short-covering if the price goes over 2.95 - 3.00. We are more than half way through winter so the rally may only last as long as there is persistent coldness. Natgas will eventually bottom out by second half of this year, there will be downtrend after the winter.
+1 Reply
16 FEB 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/Linked-In:
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$NGAS - Potential WW. Watch for point-5 along 1-3 or 5' along dashed line:

snapshot


@tradingview #natgas #oilandgas #gas
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snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
23 FEB 2015 - Update:

From Twitter:
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$NGAS reverses from near-hit 2.542 target; Bullish outlook; 3.285 = hi-prob.:

snapshot


@tradingview #natgas #oilandgas #oil
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David Alcindor
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Addendum - Tech-Note:

Watch for a potential retracement to 2.660 - Note that the 0.786-Fibonacci mark rests slightly higher at 2.666.

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David Alcindor
Reply
RobbMatthew 4xForecaster
2 years ago
any updated thoughts on this one? testing the $2.66 area now.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO RobbMatthew
2 years ago
Hello @RobbMatthew - $NGAS is weaving a correction that has kept TG-Lox unanswered. A new high would likely leave TG-Lox untouched, but a commitment below 2.660 will increase the chance of a TG-Lox validation. As the season moves on into higher temps, there might be a reasoning to think that lower-lows could not occur, but on a pure technical basis, a bullish Wolfe Wave or an EW Ending Diagonal are both probable contenders.

David
+1 Reply
millie PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Hi David,

Do you see a lower target than 2.542 or 2.52x? Thanks.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO millie
2 years ago
Hello @millie - I expanded the chart, the way it has been since this past January - David
Reply
09 APR 2015 - CLARIFICATION:

Note that a 2.332 projection was offered last January (see prior charts as well). However, this would represent an extremely low probability event -If and once these occur, the analysis demands that a higher timeframe be considered, in a factor of 4, as discussed before.


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David Alcindor
+3 Reply
Yahia.Awes 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Hi Dave, I found it hard to disagree with you. So my first view is considering I'm reading the chart wrong. My chart showing we didn't bottom the channel yet neither did it break out.
snapshot
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Yahia.Awes
2 years ago
@Peso - I appreciate the comment, but trust your indicators if they have been consistent in the past. The values, directions and forecasts I post are not my own, but that of a system which I organized into an "independent thinking machine", so to speak, so that I will never have to second guess myself, and instead rely on a set of conditions that turn out to be right most often than not.

If your system points one way and my analysis the other, I would first trust what is familiar, and then use it as a method of refinement if it turns out to be wrong. However, I would make sure that it is wrong for the right reason (true negative) rather than for the wrong reason (false negative). Not every instance that your system is wrong, will it be due to itself. Other things might also affect it, so overtweaking might also cause it to turn too sensitive and not specific for what you are looking for.

In medicine, we first look for a sensitive test (high potential for too many false positive), but then we verify it via a highly specific test (low potential for a low positive). Here too, look for an indicator that will "ring" whenever it sees something that resembles what you are looking for, but may or may not be it, and then pass it through another filter that confirms that what rings is truly that which you are looking for.

If you can let a trading system help you do that, then you got something that nothing and nobody can contradict, no matter what.

David
+3 Reply
Yahia.Awes 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Hi David,

Thanks for your explanation. I guess I will wait for a breakout first then.
+1 Reply
10 APR 2015 - Update:

Price churned around nominal/qualitative target over four 8-hour bar, validating relevance of this level, and accuracy of the Predictive/Forecasting Model - Reversal is nw a hgh-probability event - As explained before, a failure of a reversal from this level should prompt paying attention to higher timeframe, a rare but important indication that larger institutional players are controlling this price.


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David Alcindor
+3 Reply
millie PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
Hi David,

Any more thoughts on NGAS on a larger time frame? Thanks.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO millie
a year ago
Hello @millie - $NGAS analysis has become null and void the moment price broke and closed across ("BACA") the Watch Line ("WL") - Always drawn in deep blue in the charts, often at the middle of top or bottom of price field ... See following chart. The purpose of the WL is to define that threshold where current timeframe loses control over price. This is a method built into the Predictive/Forecasting Model, such that if price BACA x WL, then the current timeframe has to cede to a higher timeframe at 4-times its degree.

snapshot


For instance, a M15 would demand that any further analysis be effected at a M15 x 4 = H1, and that H1 be done on H1 x 4 = H4, H4 x 4 = Daily and Daily x 4 = Weekly.

In this particular case, the daily is ceding to weekly. I am in the process of running some data and review the chart at the weekly level. Any new development would occur on a new thread ... Coming up very soon.

David Alcindor

Reply
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