Natural gas (NGAS) is coming to a technical floor per Elliott Wave count as well as predictive/forecasting model.
WAVE ANALYSIS:
- ELLIOTT WAVE:
Price action in this 8-hour chart illustrates a recent down-swing consistent with an Bearish Elliott Wave impulse, whose internal construction suggests a near completion, as price appears to negotiate a 5th wave conclusion.
- WOLFE WAVES:
Standing in the background appears to be a Wolfe Wave pattern, engulfing the entire Elliott Wave construct. In its most basic form, Bill Wolfe's Wolfe Waves requires that:
1 - Waves 1-3 and 2-4 be declining in the same direction (here: down) 2 - Waves 2-4 be converging and that: 3 - Point-4 be situated between Points 1 and 2, although this would only belong to the strictest definition, and these are empirical observations, as there is no formal literature from its author on this advanced pattern.
PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS & FORECASTING:
The predictive/forecasting model is calling for a bottom-most tolerable support as the "Lox" target (i.e.: extreme low value), defined as:
- TG-Lox = 2.542 - 28 JAN 2015
Model also offers the following ensuing bullish NUMERICAL targets:
1 - TG-1 = 3.285 - 28 JAN 2015
and
2 - TG-2 = 3.798 - 28 JAN 2015
... as well as this top-most NOMINAL target:
- TG-Hi = 4.343 - 28 JAN 2015
OVERALL:
An interim decline should serve to complete a set of background geometries. However, a reaction to the top-side is likely to prop price up to the defined targets. Directional indicator will remain NEUTRAL until this last fifth wave concludes.
Stay tuned,
David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Denver, Colorado - USA
Price churned around nominal/qualitative target over four 8-hour bar, validating relevance of this level, and accuracy of the Predictive/Forecasting Model - Reversal is nw a hgh-probability event - As explained before, a failure of a reversal from this level should prompt paying attention to higher timeframe, a rare but important indication that larger institutional players are controlling this price.
David Alcindor
millie
⋅
Hi David,
Any more thoughts on NGAS on a larger time frame? Thanks.
4xForecaster
⋅
Hello @millie - NGAS analysis has become null and void the moment price broke and closed across ("BACA") the Watch Line ("WL") - Always drawn in deep blue in the charts, often at the middle of top or bottom of price field ... See following chart. The purpose of the WL is to define that threshold where current timeframe loses control over price. This is a method built into the Predictive/Forecasting Model, such that if price BACA x WL, then the current timeframe has to cede to a higher timeframe at 4-times its degree.
For instance, a M15 would demand that any further analysis be effected at a M15 x 4 = H1, and that H1 be done on H1 x 4 = H4, H4 x 4 = Daily and Daily x 4 = Weekly.
In this particular case, the daily is ceding to weekly. I am in the process of running some data and review the chart at the weekly level. Any new development would occur on a new thread ... Coming up very soon.
David Alcindor
4xForecaster
⋅
09 APR 2015 - CLARIFICATION:
Note that a 2.332 projection was offered last January (see prior charts as well). However, this would represent an extremely low probability event -If and once these occur, the analysis demands that a higher timeframe be considered, in a factor of 4, as discussed before.
David Alcindor
ElPatron.Y
⋅
Hi Dave, I found it hard to disagree with you. So my first view is considering I'm reading the chart wrong. My chart showing we didn't bottom the channel yet neither did it break out.
4xForecaster
⋅
@peso - I appreciate the comment, but trust your indicators if they have been consistent in the past. The values, directions and forecasts I post are not my own, but that of a system which I organized into an "independent thinking machine", so to speak, so that I will never have to second guess myself, and instead rely on a set of conditions that turn out to be right most often than not.
If your system points one way and my analysis the other, I would first trust what is familiar, and then use it as a method of refinement if it turns out to be wrong. However, I would make sure that it is wrong for the right reason (true negative) rather than for the wrong reason (false negative). Not every instance that your system is wrong, will it be due to itself. Other things might also affect it, so overtweaking might also cause it to turn too sensitive and not specific for what you are looking for.
In medicine, we first look for a sensitive test (high potential for too many false positive), but then we verify it via a highly specific test (low potential for a low positive). Here too, look for an indicator that will "ring" whenever it sees something that resembles what you are looking for, but may or may not be it, and then pass it through another filter that confirms that what rings is truly that which you are looking for.
If you can let a trading system help you do that, then you got something that nothing and nobody can contradict, no matter what.
David
ElPatron.Y
⋅
Hi David,
Thanks for your explanation. I guess I will wait for a breakout first then.
4xForecaster
⋅
23 FEB 2015 - Update:
From Twitter:
----------
NGAS reverses from near-hit 2.542 target; Bullish outlook; 3.285 = hi-prob.:
Price churned around nominal/qualitative target over four 8-hour bar, validating relevance of this level, and accuracy of the Predictive/Forecasting Model - Reversal is nw a hgh-probability event - As explained before, a failure of a reversal from this level should prompt paying attention to higher timeframe, a rare but important indication that larger institutional players are controlling this price.
David Alcindor