There is a chance that NG bottomed today by breaking the previous low and we saw divergence on 4hr chart. But there is still possibility to have one more leg down after correction. If price action is not strong when reaching 2.75 level, would close part of the positions and wait for the bottom signal.
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We are reaching oversold area for daily as well, just as the beginning of 2017
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Played as expected so far, let's see the momentem next week.
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I think next week might be the key for trend reversal. Still keeping my longs bought around 2.64 level, let's see if we break through 2.75 solidly.
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Guys, it seems like it is trying to break 2.75. 1 or 2 more days for the final confirmation. If 2.75 level holds, that means trend reversal is in play, the first target is 3.3 level. Merry Christmas!
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It seems like revisiting the bottom. I will be closing my longs and wait.
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I think 2.5 will be revisited, trade with care if you are selling.
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I still don't think we are done yet. This is the reason I don't want to go short at this moment even there is a chance for good profit, too risky.
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Today will be the key, let's see the momentem!
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Now it's certain that the trend reverses, the first potential target is around 3.3. Looks like not able to find a trade this week. This is typical for natty, once it decides to go, it goes in one direction!
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The correction is expected and almost done. Enter the ship from here, but the position for UGAZ cannot be heavy at this moment, since we need enough buffer for holding over the weekend. Stop loss is around 2.86, below the left support area. I will be adding more if we see big correction next week or the week after, even with less profit but less risk as well. Don't feel mad or regret, trade with care!
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Don't be panic about the pin bar on Daily chart, this is just the beginning of the rally, so it's a trap, not a reversal sign!
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Good, as expected. I have said the pin bar is a trap, lots of traders are afraid last Friday.
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Daily chart reaching top of the BB, we may see 1-2 days price ranging before breakout. I will be finding good place to add long.
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Added small long position at 2.97 with tight stop loss, next target is 3.15.
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Reaching middle line of BB on 4hr.
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I am almost certain that it is going up during the day time. Let's see what price can we close at the end of the week.
Trade closed manually
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Trade manually closed. With today's dump I think winter rally is ruled out.
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But as of now the trend is not changed, will step aside for a while waiting for signals.
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Jeez, glad I took the small loss. With the winter rally ruled out, I will be only place short term trade and taking profit accordingly.
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Retrospect: Should've checked NATGASUSD as well, it had a more clear picture. NGAS shows lots of weird spikes. A perfect flag in the middle before the dump, there was hope that buyers would show up around 2.92 level but never did. Now the medium term direction is in doubt, only consider short term trade on UGAZ/DGAZ, at this level, not worth to hold over the weekend. Tomorrow possible short term breaking down, since the volume told us buyers are escaping today.
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Spend sometime checking on USOIL, we may get a medium term selling opportunities soon, will post idea once I found topping signals. Don't rush in because the price is high! Good luck.
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Today's bounce might be just a correction before heading south. Tomorrow we shall know whether this thing going up or down. Up to now, both scenarios are possible.
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About to break down! Trade with care
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Nice, as expected! But only takes short term trades, lock in the profit based on your own techniques!
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Take out the trade as small profit at the end of today. Possible one more back up, might be getting a better trade latter
@pparmy1991 I think we need solid EIA report at thursday to break up and I think we will have it!
goodguy
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Great call.
TomPower
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Now im long and probably wrong. I will take the heat to 2.5
rafalo
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Nice! I think that this is no reason to go UP for natgas so it is going to dive!
pparmy1991
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@rafalo, Don't get me wrong, I am still bullish in long term. This is only a short term trade to 2.50, take profit accordingly, you might get pull backs frequently.
rafalo
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@pparmy1991, Thanks. I'm curious what is the fundamental reason to be bullish?
No I'm out for long time with this crazy natgas.
pparmy1991
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@rafalo, The fundamental reason will be that big players publish some bullish news like hot summer, or middle east problem. By that time it's too late to be bullish
TomPower
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How will we know? when its up or down 3 percent, I mean come on dude, that is vague!
pparmy1991
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@TomPower, When you are scared, just step aside, that's simple, right? Just let it up or down. I only place my trade when "I personally think" it worths a shot.