1) Nat gas lifts off from my entry (low probability)
2) An could be in play and will take nat gas lower into my pink region, then reverse lightly or definitively.
3) Price could fall into the high 1.60's for a libra pattern, then reverse.
4) Price could on the monthly time frame before rallying higher (Most conservative strategy, but often misses entry).
5) Nat gas prices break down below the 1.60's (Unlikely).
Keep the long term support in mind.