Natural gas 50% rally eyes $5.25! Arctic blast, Trump $83b shift

While everyone is focused on gold hitting $5,100 and silver approaching $110, natural gas has staged one of the most vertical rallies we've seen in years, surging nearly 50% from the mid-January low of $2.65 to near $4.00 in just 10 days. Is this the start of a sustained bull market?

We analyse the powerful combination of weather-driven demand and structural policy shifts driving natural gas prices higher. We break down the technical setup across multiple timeframes, identifying key resistance zones and two potential scenarios for the next move.

Key topics:
Dual fundamental catalysts:

• Arctic blast: The polar vortex hit the US harder than forecasted, spiking heating demand and freezing production in key basins.
• Trump's $83 billion shift: The administration cancelled green energy loans and redirected funds specifically to Natural Gas and Nuclear infrastructure, adding a structural tailwind to long-term demand.

Daily analysis:
Golden Cross confirmation: Price broke above the 200MA and is now testing the 50MA, confirming the bullish cross from November.
50% Fibonacci resistance: Currently testing the $3.95 level (50% retracement from $5.24 to $2.65) with RSI at 60—room for another 10 points of upside momentum.
Cluster resistance: The confluence of the 50MA and 50% Fib creates strong resistance, but a break could turn this into powerful support.

4-hour chart:

• Scenario 1 (Cup & Handle complete): If the pattern is finished at the 23.6% Fib, the measured move targets $4.70 (78.6% extension).
• Scenario 2 (Double Top at $4.00): RSI divergence suggests resistance could hold. A pullback to $3.45-$3.65 would form the handle, with the neckline projection targeting $5.25.

Trade setup

• Entry: Current levels or on pullback to $3.45-$3.65.
• Stop Loss: Below the 61.8% Fibonacci (unlikely to break if this is a true impulse).
• Target: $5.25 (previous December 2025 peak), with potential extension if $4.25 breaks decisively.
• Risk Management: Secure partial profits along the way and trail stops to protect gains.

Are you buying the dip or waiting for confirmation above $4? Let us know in the comments!

This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.