Idea for indices: - As expected, Robinhood IPO was the trigger for global sell-off (other factors involved obviously, but I have been posting about everything macro related in other posts). - China continuing to lead down. - Look how the deflationary wave hits HSI > Nikkei > EU > US. Dome tops forming everywhere. - ECB actually has greater QE than US, so EU index performance is a critical tell for deflationary forces vs. QE. - Watch China Tech ETFs to lead US indices down. Managers will need to also liquidate US positions as their portfolio % exposure becomes overweight.
I've been enjoying watching Nikkei lately - it just broke a critical support and 200 DMA (6m low), officially a bear market if it consolidates losses. However, it is still holding 50 WMA and 200 DMA in real performance... waiting for US markets for confirmation.
Bearish bias here, turning point is due. Aug 2 debt limit will be in focus. Early August is my trigger for reversal confirmation. If it holds, we can back off and try again later, but rugpull is definitely due.
Already short US indices (long vol).
Nikkei real performance (relative to currency):
Here is what I think will happen to Nikkei next:
GLHF - DPT
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IMO how it translates to US tech:
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We saw big tech earnings:
Guess what, now its Big Oil earnings:
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Congress needs to pass 4 bills: eviction moratorium, infrastructure, budget for 2022, and debt-limit extension. They have 7 days in Committees and then 10 days to argue and vote between now and Oct 1st, to do all this. Then the treasury goes into default.