India Nifty@24th June 2016--- The Mercury Effect…

NSE:NIFTY   Nifty 50 Index
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India Nifty@24th June 2016--- The Mercury Effect…Were You Ready for this Volatility…

Just few weeks back…I was discussing this to one of my close pal & family member that market could become volatile on account of mercury going into sun’s home under saturn’s shadow can make market puke—you know what was his/her reaction—aa…ooo…as usual like everyone does & ignores to pay heavy price for market reaction without even scared that we might be sitting at the top of the market.

Market always does this to shake confidence if we stretch too much on one side—which was evident in India Nifty             When it made a low@6825 to abruptly turn upside trapping bears & giving 1500 points rally to top@8300 approx & giving tight slap to bulls with this knee jerk reaction & falling 300 points in a day on account of Brexit reason-which finally came true against market expectation & surprised complete market.

I was very keen to see that how markets react because we were very close to crucial mark of 8335 which was key level for bulls to continue further upside.

I had lot of Intermarket Relations which was pointing towards this knee jerk reaction-one of them was USDINR             (Dollar Rupee)- which I have been following since 6th             April2016- when dollar rupee gave sharp downside move from 68 levels to 66 levels—there itself I updated that unless 65.95 support is broken on daily basis-Rupee cannot appreciate further & we shall see weakness in coming days.
One more leg is pending on upside in the form of Z-leg—which can create panic state in market.

Dollar Index             was another financial instrument which was waiting for upside explosion & got the reason to do so—we elliotticians call this as ending diagonal in C-wave             of Dollar Index—Upside Movement was expected…

This is a leading Diagonal -Wave 1 Green from 6825 to 8286...With Key Resistance at 8286...This sharp downside reaction was result of Ending Diagonal in C-Wave             of 5th minute yellow wave...any pull back & bearish confirmation on your end should be taken as sell on rise opportunity mean USDINR             will do its work on upside...till 70's creating panic in B-Wave....This correction in market could go deep till 7200--7400 which is usually seen for leading diagonals...

Pull back which is happening happens to be corrective wave then we shall become very strong that market wants to go down....let us wait for markets only to show us the way instead of predicting its course...later we shall enjoy the rally where ever it heads...Regards, Abhishek             H.Singh, CMT
Trade active: 9:30 Hrs ..IST--Good Morning! 27th June 2016....It is foolish to buy at tops ...wait market will give you a chance to enter in the buy camp...Let the current rally off low @7927 be retraced in the zone 8020--8045 once it starts trading below 8080 Mark...Current Price--8097. Regards, Abhishek
Trade active: 10:30 Hrs..IST--27th June 2016... Nifty Slips & Makes recent low@8068....Currently Trading@8080...Likely I will be interested to buy in the zone 8020--8040 for targets above 8100 + or if Nifty crosses 8101 Recent High...One Can Buy with Opening Stop@8040- A tick Below..Regards, Abhishek
Trade active: 13:15 Hrs IST...27th June 2016.... Nifty Crossed 8101 but looks not convince upside...losing its strength...so what ever one gets as target between 8130--8140...Take it Go else any move below 8068 ...will put nifty back into pressure. Do not forget that we are into corrective rally & once we start falling it will slip...& slip along with euro...That's it from end. Take Care & Bye
Trade active: 13:30 Hrs..IST..27th June 2016.. Till the Nifty low@8068 is broken we will not look downside & It has scope of touching 8140--8150 where it will retrace 61.8% of the fall on brexit day & if extended could go very close to 8200 to trap bulls ...Do not carry any long positions from today's session. Regards, Abhishek
Trade active: 12:30 Hrs..IST..28th June2016...Yesterday it was little volatile but be careful on longs as any sharp fall in euro will take Nifty as well & It will have floor to dance...Today's Weak Zone is 8050--8060...Trading Below Shall carry Nifty to 8000 Mark & even Below.. Regards, Abhishek
Comment: Nifty will have " No Floor to Dance "
Trade active: 13:45 Hrs..IST-28th June 2016....Nifty is in kissing distance of 61.8% retracement of the Brexit Day Fall...Zone is 8145--8155...Risky Traders Should Take a chance of going short once they get their side bearish confirmation...Regards
Trade active: 13:50 Hrs-28th June 2016---Do not go short immediately...Likely Should Touch Again 8145--8155 zone ...There we will check...Current Price --8128..Regards
Trade active: 14:20 Hrs--28th June 2016-- Nifty has gone deep down from top@8145 which was resistance zone but we should avoid taking short unless it touches 8145--8155 zone again or it breaks 8100 which ever is first..Post breaking 8100...I will come back immediately...Current Price--8120...Regards
Comment: 15:30 Hrs--IST-28th June 2016 .....See...This is real injustice...Euro is also into retracement ...& was waiting for markets to close ...look it started doing that small rally which I expected..current-1.1098
Comment: waiting for "our markets" to close
Trade active: 09:10 Hrs--29th June 2016--- Nifty to open gap up fill the target zone...unfortunately market closed yesterday otherwise I wise bullish on lower degree unless 8100 was broken-...Now I guess we have wait for confirmation...Gap is almost filled. Regards
Trade active: 9:25 Hrs --29th June 2016-- looks like we have formed double corrective pattern as retracement ..we just need confirmation for going short..That confirmation comes when we go below 8090--8100 levels for Target --8040--8050 below 8040---7990--8000....Risky Traders can take short position with stop above 8210...for Target 8100 & Below as mentioned above...
Trade active: 9:55 Hrs--29th June ...Nifty trading at 8175...Taking short --we should avoid & not hurry up wait for some more confirmation...
Trade active: 10:30 Hrs..IST--29th June 2016...Nifty made a high@8186....Do not hold any long positions ...Any sustainable move above 8210 will open new upside zone else we should sooner or later start moving down. Nifty should touch today's low@8163 to give us some confidence that it want's to go down. Regards
Trade active: 13:05 Hrs...IST--29th June 2016.... EURUSD ...Larger E-wave of triangle is still pending...Expecting a thrust...once 1.1245--1.1260 target zone is kissed --Euro will start its fall or downside thrust...which will carry Nifty & Other Indices down too...so keep a close watch. Regards, Abhishek
Trade active: 15:05 Hrs...29th June 2016--- Its an expanding pattern so all wierd things will happen...This up leg has got stretched but avoid taking long positions --intraday its ok to go long because anytime we see downside thrust in EU...Nifty will trap bulls...Current Price--8210
Trade active: 15:15 Hrs--29th June 2016....Tha fall from 8285 to 7927 has been retraced exactly by 80% coming at today's high@8212-8214--which is upper edge for any corrective pattern...From here the development is very crucial to see whether we are going down or something is still left on upside.. Regards, Abhishek
Trade active: 9:10 Hrs--30th June 2016--- Nifty looking open gap up...its very challenging to trade with so many gap ups...important resistance 8285 is very closeby... If 8170 is intact ...& holds one can buy or we can short only below 8100 for targets 8040--8050..Regards
Comment: This is the reason why I said unless we get confirmation that Nifty wants to go down-it will be risky to short & updated that 8090--8100 is crucial zone breach of that we should take short.
Comment: As per earlier update...8170 is key short term support...since market has opened gap up...i am asking to initiate any long position here@8250--8260...once nifty falls close to 8170--8180 & takes support then only one should buy else below 8090--8100 only market looks weak.
Comment: sorry for typo--"I am not asking anyone to initiate long positions in the range 8250--8260
Trade active: Important Resistance 8285 is intact...Nifty made high@8277-8278...Putting that stop..one can take agressive sell...We shall lose 20-22 points but gain could be big. Regards
Comment: 12:20 Hrs--30th June 2016----If Taken Short between 8255--8257...Nifty should not go even beyond 8266 which is recent swing high in current scenario...Now till the time 8266 is not taken out then we will likely continue down else ...it can again go up...Regards
Comment: 12:40 Hrs--30th June 2016--I am leaving for the day...Trade carefully...Regards
Best Regards,
Abhishek H. Singh, CMT
India Regional Manager
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India Markets-BSE, NSE chat room- https://in.tradingview.com/chat/#b4sFOMIVqPkq8gfQ
Hi Jackson ,10 Lots --aren't you taking big risk..I am mean to say. you are serious & not joking .. Are you ready to take risk of 20--22 odd points (because losing that trade could give you a hit of Rs 17000--20000). Regards
jackson_philips AbhishekHSinghCMT
Yep. I made some good money in CIPLA and SUNPHARMA, so i'm willing to risk some from that
jackson_philips AbhishekHSinghCMT
ok fine :) Exit 9 lots @ 8248
Done Sir,
I entered @ 8255 ( 10 Lots ) ( NF ) .. Lets hope for the best..
Hi Jackson...It looks little risky to take short but well If You can Take stop above 8210 - A Tick Above...We can look till 8100 & below 8090--8100 levels ...can touch 8040 ...below 8040--7990--8000...Regards
Would you recommend shorting now, since it is @ 8165 levels ?
Mine is a special case ....It is a leading Diagonal...or Diagonal Wave Type 1...where 4th waves are allowed to go into 1st wave top ...& this is rarest of rare pattern...leading diagonal has opened up as expanding pattern which never happens on regular basis...
Hi Vineet...As per chart which you have posted below comment section....You are violating all the rules of elliottwave....3rd waves are the wonder waves to behold...your 3rd wave is very shallow....Most of the the time 3rd wave are vertical...personality ..awesome ..you will say.."awesome"...kya movement hai yaar...when you utter that lines...that will be 3rd wave....3 cardinal Rules of Elliott Wave-- 1st Rule--3rd waves are largest of 1 & 5 among 1...3 & 5th wave....2nd Rule-- 4th waves can never ever go into 1st wave top...yours 4th wave is going into 1st wave that too so deep ....3rd Rule-- 2nd Wave cannot retrace 100% of 1st wave..that is the only rule you have followed...Regards, Abhishek
vineetgoyal21 AbhishekHSinghCMT
Thanks Abhishek.. I knew these rules but was still wondering there might be some special cases.. Thanks a lot for cross checking and the confirmation :)
Sorry for the typo..."No Floor to Dance"....It was just an idea...nothing is mine...Regards
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