India Nifty@24th June 2016--- The Mercury Effect…Were You Ready for this Volatility…
Just few weeks back…I was discussing this to one of my close pal & family member that market could become volatile on account of mercury going into sun’s home under saturn’s shadow can make market puke—you know what was his/her reaction—aa…ooo…as usual like everyone does & ignores to pay heavy price for market reaction without even scared that we might be sitting at the top of the market.
Market always does this to shake confidence if we stretch too much on one side—which was evident in India Nifty When it made a low@6825 to abruptly turn upside trapping bears & giving 1500 points rally to top@8300 approx & giving tight slap to bulls with this knee jerk reaction & falling 300 points in a day on account of Brexit reason-which finally came true against market expectation & surprised complete market.
I was very keen to see that how markets react because we were very close to crucial mark of 8335 which was key level for bulls to continue further upside.
I had lot of Intermarket Relations which was pointing towards this knee jerk reaction-one of them was USDINR (Dollar Rupee)- which I have been following since 6th April2016- when dollar rupee gave sharp downside move from 68 levels to 66 levels—there itself I updated that unless 65.95 support is broken on daily basis-Rupee cannot appreciate further & we shall see weakness in coming days.
One more leg is pending on upside in the form of Z-leg—which can create panic state in market.
Dollar Index was another financial instrument which was waiting for upside explosion & got the reason to do so—we elliotticians call this as in C-wave of Dollar Index—Upside Movement was expected…
This is a -Wave 1 Green from 6825 to 8286...With Key Resistance at 8286...This sharp downside reaction was result of in C-Wave of 5th minute yellow wave...any pull back & confirmation on your end should be taken as sell on rise opportunity mean USDINR will do its work on upside...till 70's creating panic in B-Wave....This correction in market could go deep till 7200--7400 which is usually seen for leading diagonals...
Pull back which is happening happens to be corrective wave then we shall become very strong that market wants to go down....let us wait for markets only to show us the way instead of predicting its course...later we shall enjoy the rally where ever it heads...Regards, Abhishek H.Singh, CMT
Abhishek H. Singh, CMT
India Regional Manager
India Markets-BSE, NSE chat room- https://in.tradingview.com/chat/#b4sFOMIVqPkq8gfQ