I have committed mistake of overlooking one in between support on daily time frame. Today, as the open was above 11728,I have booked loss in overnight hedged shorts. Loss was 0.4% of the capital deployed.
Presently, I am clueless as far as direction is concerned, only sure about the range of 11905 and 11629 for near term.
Was not really up to the standard of mine... otherwise I should not have taken fresh shorts after having good profit. But that's the way it is..
Yearly pivot is at 11683. Weekly pivot is at 11768.7 and daily pivot was 11789 from where nifty got resistance.
Now elliot wave suggest 1.618 is 11873 from today's low high. Long build up seen upto 11850. And from there main downtrend can take place 3rd wave if counted from 120025.
But the way it has given a pull back and closed above weekly pivot at the last minute maybe an indication of gap up opening on Monday. However I was long yesterday from the low still i got nothing instead in loss even also on the right direction due to option theta value decreasing.
Short with a stop of 11900 at 11873. Also don't forget to look at the price action. I am thinking of a short at there as there can be a third wave until 120050 is on the table on closing basis in a daily chart.
AMGO_Markets
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@Somanathrout, thank you for your detailed write up, I really appreciate your explanation
BharadwajBharaata
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@Somanathrout, Could you ost your chart please, with the elliot waves. many thanks in advance.
BharadwajBharaata
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could you explain the calculations based on which u calculated the supports and the trading zone? if it does not inconveniences you, please do.
AMGO_Markets
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@BharadwajBharaata, I appreciate that you are curious to know about calculations to draw support and resistance zone.. To let you know briefly these are not any mathematically derived calculations...... My method for analysis is based on Price, Volume and areas of liquidity and the most important is structure of the market.... this concept can not be explained in a short discussion unfortunately.. Also trading view charts presently do not support the data points I need along with price candles... But yes its a raw analysis of data price points based Daily and weekly time frame.....
@SalamShameema, actually support and resistance zones marked on the charts are so closely placed, if you can again refer to chart. So, important point to watch will be, if this support has enough strength to break 11905.... Such an event is termed as support established.... Theory is support till time is not established till it at list removes one resistance and same is the case in down trending markets, resistance is established when support is breached.... So, personally I would wait till breach of support or breach of resistance now as the range is so narrow.... so, will definitely would like to wait till I see a confirmed trend....
BharadwajBharaata
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11629 or 11639?
AMGO_Markets
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@BharadwajBharaata, 11629 is a low of 7/10/2020 and 11639 is low of 26/2/2020. For that matter these two candles are providing immediate support. To be on safer side we will consider 11629 as it is just the matter of 10 points.
Now elliot wave suggest 1.618 is 11873 from today's low high. Long build up seen upto 11850. And from there main downtrend can take place 3rd wave if counted from 120025.
But the way it has given a pull back and closed above weekly pivot at the last minute maybe an indication of gap up opening on Monday. However I was long yesterday from the low still i got nothing instead in loss even also on the right direction due to option theta value decreasing.
Short with a stop of 11900 at 11873. Also don't forget to look at the price action. I am thinking of a short at there as there can be a third wave until 120050 is on the table on closing basis in a daily chart.