1. The price has been moving in this parallel channel since 22 April and has been constantly creating Higher Highs & Higher Lows. 2. It has been trying to find the equilibrium between 15450-15900 levels. If you are a swing trader, you must wait for the price to break out or at least touch either side of this range. 3. Until and Unless the price drops below 14450, the market structure is still Bullish.
P.S: This is NOT investment advice. This chart is meant for learning purposes only. Invest your capital at your own risk.
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On the hourly time frame, Nifty has managed to save the levels by closing inside the range. A series of hammers have formed on the bottom of the range, indicating a potential decrease in the selling pressure.
It would be interesting to watch if we are able to see some kind of buying action on Monday.
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Guys, I mean 15450 and not 14450. Sorry for the inconvenience.
Nifty has kind of formed a dragon fly doji and is on a crucial support of 15686 on daily charts if this level is broken then the next small support is 15519 which i think could be broken easily if the downward momentum is strong and then there's frefall till 15314 which again is a very strong support. Dragonfly doji is considered as a bullish reversal candlestick if it appears in a downtrend and so if nifty hold the level of 15686 on Monday then reversal would be confirmed or the downtrend will continue for a while. Markets have given quiet a good rally by taking into account the positive news of declining covid cases and increasing vaccinations but now i think markets are saturated by these news and won't give a fresh rally on it soon but now it's time to take into account the falling GDP, rising inflation and declining economy and unemployment situation. NPAs of banks are expected to rise and all these factors when taken into account indicate that markets might give a slight pullback on monday but then atull close in read and the downtrend might still go on atleast till 15314 levels.
(This is my personal opinion and analysis on the markets, feel free to debate)
sohamdey76
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@sandeshprabhu85 Very nicely explained however my opinions are different. After the stong buying on Friday with a positive closing upward momentum will continue and Nifty will again try to test 15900 levels.
sandeshprabhu85
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@sohamdey76, I respect your opinion but i don't think it was a strong buying that we witnessed on Friday rather what i think that we merely witnessed short covering due to weekend as there's uncertainty on how the markets would react on Monday and most people prefer to stay light on their short positions overnight and i still think that the short term trend for nifty is sill on the negative side cuz most of the Q1 results are going to be on the lower side as 80% of Q1 FY22 again went into lockdown and businesses were affected and now again there are talks of imposing restrictions based on the spread of the new variant.
The long term view is very bullish but in the short term there is going to be volatility and corrections as the markets have rallied immensely and it's time to cooldown before another rally as the movement can't be going on in one direction right. I'd like to know what you think about it
akhil2fast
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@sandeshprabhu85, @sohamdey76 Very good analysis
Friday close was just below the weekly pivot 15750, so if we stay above the weekly pivot 16k will be the next resistance, which may not be taken out intraday. 15500 is the weekly fib 618 support level, will act as support. If we manage to close above 15900 on monday then 16k is definitely possible, if we close below 15750 (weekly pivot) then snake & ladder will continue
sandeshprabhu85
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@akhil2fast, Thanks for the compliment
What I think is that we should not just analyse the markets technically but also fundamentally. Everybody should focus on the ongoing situation in the country and around the world. Delta plus variant is now spread across 200 countries and spreading faster than anticipated even the United States has warned against the spread of this variant. Our country is already in an economic crisis with poor management and rising inflation with commodity prices at all time high the inflation is also at all time high.
Many people say and believe that markets are forward looking so i think the upcoming situation of the new variant along with rising inflation, declining GDP and economic crisis the short term view is not at all good for the markets and if all this is taken into account then the bullish hammer formed on friday won't be of any use cuz even if we open gap up tomorrow markets might close in red which would confirm that the downward movement is still not over.
All i'm saying is that markets have rallied very well on the declining covid cases and increasing vaccinations but now the situation is quiet different, rise of the new variant and also there is shortage of vaccine here and there and in India the number of partially vaccinated population is more than full vaccinated population which is also a point of concern, people are not able to get their second dose due to this stretched gap between two doses. Also many states are imposing fresh restrictions slowly and steadily which indicated that this time the government won't take any chances in case of the third wave and they'll impose lockdown sooner if they have to to curb the spread.
Nifty is going to cross 16k but now is not both time and situation or any reason to rise to 16k soon atleast for the short term, the long term view for our markets is still very bullish unless there aren't any scams that unveil and destabilize the markets.
mindmystocks
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i think u mean until price goes below 15500 not 14500
johntradingwick
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@mindmystocks, Yes I meant 15450. I'll update with a comment.
wc4ma7yga2
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Sir, do u think still bull market or trend reversal with today’s closing..plz share ur view
johntradingwick
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@wc4ma7yga2, We cannot call it trend reversal. Until and unless the price closes below 15650, there is no logic in opening shorts. I will start closing my long positions below 15450. If you are a swing trader, then you should not be worried about intraday activity.
(This is my personal opinion and analysis on the markets, feel free to debate)