Nifty is now trading at ATH. The rally now seems to be done with only few heavyweights leading the markets.
Short Nifty : Nifty is trading in Wave 3 of Wave 5 for which correction is due and also inside a channel. New ATH resistance would be 11677. Wave 4 correction is due -- will it start today or tomorrow ?( any reversal candlestick pattern on Daily charts would be the signal ) Also look at RSI on Daily/2 Hourly chart -- it is falling and Nifty is rising
OI Data : Look at the OI PE of NIfty for Aug Series -- Traders are way much more bullish 11500, 11400, 11300 - OI PE -- 400k plus contracts at each ...so any sudden selloff will put pressure on sellers to close their position
Targets : For Upside 11677 ---- For Wave 4 correction 11200/11084 Last Wave 5 of Wave 5 Targets -- 12200 on NIfty & 30000 on BankNifty
WatchOut : This is the last wave i.e. Nifty is trading in wave 5 so where it ends and when is difficult but instead of going long at every dip it would be better to sell at every rise and accumulate cash. Only SPX500 is looking to break on upside and DAX & Nikkei looks like the reversal is in sight. And finally the Shanghai Index has probably made the bottom as it is cheaper compared to Nifty.
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Nifty next upside ATH resistance would be 11780-11800 !! No bearish reversal candle on daily charts. Look for island reversal or gravestone Doji. Till then Wait for a short as patience is rewarded in markets.
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Nifty reverses wiping out 3 day support -- Time to short !!
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1st Target - 11475
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2nd Target -- 11380-11400 And may be a reversal soon within 1-2 days !!
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Nifty is close to 11400 and looks set to reverse !! BN is looking better than Nifty on long side --
@Rajivahuja.rka, @Rajivahuja.rka, Nifty is entering into ABC correction which means a no trade zone or get in get out with small profits. Now look at RSI at the end of June month -- nifty has fallen to new lows but RSI did not which was a reversal point. So looking at same pattern here also and still not touched the lower channel support !! Lets wait for friday -- If Nifty opens Gapup and closes in bullish candle with (5 min candle charts) we would go long sl @ gapup low and same for gapdown.
@AnbHfund, sir if nifty entered ABC. CORRECTION mode in that case A &B seems to be completed and hopefully C will start soon and when C ends that will be the completion of wave 4 and final wave 5 will start......OR wave 4 is already completed at 11393 and wave 5 has already started,. please explain.
AnbHfund
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@Rajivahuja.rka, In correction it is difficult to tell the wave count.Yes Nifty is in ABC correction but in which wave that is the difficult part. Whenever RSI goes closer to 30 it would be a buy signal on Daily Charts this signal works. But the best strategy is sell both call & Put options during the corrections and enjoy the premiums. -- Take a look at 11800 CE @ 54 and 11000 PE @ 16 -- At 10900 the wave count gets violated and above 11800 correction gets over !! ( Keep in mind selling an option has unlimited risk -- just for learning ) On the upside 11800 CE has Max OI whereas at 11000 PE it has 3 Highest OI -- For the time being traders have a thinking not above 11800 and now below 11000 under a bearish correction. On the otherside we still think it is still wave A !!
rajivahuja.rka
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Thanks sir for your valuable analysis
rajivahuja.rka
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Great sir your 11677 target almost done. Waiting for next move. Sir you mentioned China is cheaper than India does it mean money will go out in China and nifty will cool down.
AnbHfund
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@Rajivahuja.rka, Look at chart below, XGY0 is now at trendline support therefore if any investor is going to choose between China and India -- they would bet on China considering 2019 Election in India !! So yes the money might move out of India to China markets ..