Compared to the previous year, 2016 has been a pretty good year for stock traders and investors as well. The year began on the backdrop of a huge correction of the Nifty in 2015 (-1600 points from the high) after a fantastic uptrend in 2014 (+ 2000 points YOY). The 1st two months of 2016 saw the markets reach new lows and a majority of stocks went on to touch multi-year lows. This fall gave a good opportunity to traders especially our Inspiron traders who spotted and shorted the best down trending stocks to bring in lots of profits while majority investors saw their portfolios being eroded day after day.
However come March and the Nifty suddenly reversed from a low of 6800 and there were no stocks left to short-sell as most of them had gone up sharply. Only a handful of stocks (less than 10) regained their uptrend and it looked as if this rebound was temporary. But the markets being true to its character continued to limp higher month on month although with a number of roadblocks along the way. By the end of May, we had more than 50 stocks that had regained their uptrend and 25+ stocks that reversed from downtrend to uptrend in NSE segment. That close to 50% stocks in the segment. What was equally surprising is that the stocks went up with minimal and smoothness that had not been seen in a very long time. The buildup every time a stock touches a new high is increasing continuously. As on today (31st July) the Nifty comfortably sits as 8600 levels and looks in no mood to catch a breath.
So what does all of this indicate?
Well, before we arrive at a probability, lets crunch a few numbers
The Nifty went from 6100 in Feb 2014 to 8500 in Nov 2014, a rise of 2400 points in 10 months averaging a gain of 57 points every week.
This time the Nifty has gone from 7000 in March 2016 to 8600 in July 2016, a rise of 1600 points in 5 months averaging a gain of 72 points every week.
Current of the Nifty is @ 8888, what is also interesting is that in past the Nifty has closed above 8888 for less than 10 trading days in its entire lifetime. So crossing this level may be a hurdle but once that is achieved, there is reason to believe that there can be no looking back. We may well be riding the best run in a decade.
Even if the Nifty just continues this run rate then we could see the Nifty breaching 10,000 by December!
So it’s time to pull up your socks and get serious, you can’t afford to miss this run! In the last decade if there was a time to be serious about your equity investments, this is that TIME. Take a look at your investment type, your capital and risk taking abilities and get in touch with a Mentor who can guide you.
Goodluck & Godspeed