Technically, Nifty is expected to bounce from support of 9685; and if it successfully does so then the next target would be 10128 for the 5th subwave of the 3rd.
My only concern is the bearish global market sentiment due to geopolitical tensions between US - N.Korea and India-China Doklam standoff heating up.
If the Nifty trades below 9685, I would consider it Bearish; but wouldn't short.
@SumitJain, Hi Sumit, Ralph Nelson Elliott mentioned - 4th wave can sometimes "slightly enter" in to price territory of wave 1, in " highly leveraged markets", to put it briefly. Markets have gone through phenomenal change in last few decades. You might want to read my reply to Udaya below.
In my humble opinion, you might want to revisit Elliott Wave principles again.
Thanks.
SunnyPawar
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@SumitJain, P.S. To be precise - in highly leveraged markets you can allow a slight overlap.
udaya.gujaran
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Upside target shld be around 10288 for completion of Wave 3 which is 1.61% of wave 1 before it starts correcting for wave 4
SunnyPawar
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@Udaya.gujaran, Hi Udaya, you are correct when you say wave 3 should be 1.61% of wave 1, if fact it can sometimes be even 2X times of that in bull market. But when the market has bearish sentiment [such as due Doklam standoff and N.Korea-USA ] you can never rule out "Truncated or Failed 5 wave" (of the 3rd wave in this case).
In fact, you will observe a lot of truncated 5th waves these days, which is due to High frequency algorithmic trading, market manipulation (thanks to the market makers, brokers who bet against traders, hedge funds to name a few..) and excess leverage which is easily available these days.
Considering the above context, there is good probability that the 5th of the 3 wave may terminate near the previous high.
Udaya, As an EW practitioner and most importantly trader my effort is to fill the gap between Elliott Wave theory (Academic study) and it's practical applications in the market.
I heard a quote(don't remember where), " We are in the business of making money, not counting waves". That was an eye opener for me. Udaya, EW is just a tool, not a holy-grail. Let's not forget. Yes, it's a great tool, but still a tool, it has its limitations.
I can still be wrong, but I have to be practical. Hope I answered your question.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts, Udaya.
udaya.gujaran
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@SunnyPawar, I might think 10 times before commenting...hahaha. Thanks Sunny for detail explanation...I agree with most of your points. Happy Trading