I my weekly review post (Link below), I commented,
I take consolidation with a negative bias view. The pattern target is 10860. I sense that this week, NIFTY is likely to hit that zone. I need to see if this happens with momentum. There should not be any closing above 11130, If there is any closing above this level, short bias is challenged. If NIFTY crosses above, 11195-11200, actually bias is on the long side. Summary : Bearish consolidation view with target 10860-10900, reversal in view at 11200.
***If there is a gap down below 11000, that will confirm that this time correction may not be shallow. And any close below 10800, means the possibility of more downside.***
There was a gap down opening, so this correction may not be as shallow as others from May 18. From levels and target of pattern perspective, I think NIFTY got there in a day. ===============================================================================================================================================
My trades today
I sold 11000 CALL anticipating bearish day, I squared it off for the profit near the end of the day.
My observations for the day.
NIFTY closed the day with the loss of 1.64% BANK NIFTY closed 2.62% lower. VIX gained 4.10%, back above 25. This is not a good sign. Advance Decline ratio for NIFTY is 13 to 37, not as bad as the fall. Reliance Industries caused nearly 44 points on downside. Open Interest showing 11000 -11200 zone is agreeable resistance zone.
My view for tomorrow
Today is the fourth day for the down move. When I see the reliance chart and NIFTY chart I think touch of support zone 10780-10830 is possible in tomorrow’s session. This zone is where there is a possibility of some sort of bounce. This is the first bounce after correction, so likely to fail. It is better to wait and let the pattern form before in long side trade.
I based on my decision on multiple things, I'll explain some here
1) By what margin support is broken?
2) How big/small is the first open 15 min or 30 min candle.
3) Shape of the candle ( Is buying visible from candle shape)
4) Where is the consolidation zone above and below
Now lets answer each of these for the situation yesterday
1) Previous Day Low (which I take as support placed around 11025. The opening candle broke it in first 15 mins by making low of 10985. So 15 points for 11000 and 40 points for 11025
2) Candle is big red. No buying at 10985
3) Shape is bearish, not a long tail. So no buying , also big supply at 11000, 11025.
4) Consolidation is at 10835
Now all this tells me , we can enter on break of low of first 15 min candle intra-day, stop placed little above 11060. If you are aggressive then stop at 11030. Target 10900.
rudreshgates
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suppose the support line is at 10k and the market opens gap down and below 10k.. like it did yesterday. should we go short right after or how should we execute this trade ?
1) By what margin support is broken?
2) How big/small is the first open 15 min or 30 min candle.
3) Shape of the candle ( Is buying visible from candle shape)
4) Where is the consolidation zone above and below
Now lets answer each of these for the situation yesterday
1) Previous Day Low (which I take as support placed around 11025. The opening candle broke it in first 15 mins by making low of 10985. So 15 points for 11000 and 40 points for 11025
2) Candle is big red. No buying at 10985
3) Shape is bearish, not a long tail. So no buying , also big supply at 11000, 11025.
4) Consolidation is at 10835
Now all this tells me , we can enter on break of low of first 15 min candle intra-day, stop placed little above 11060. If you are aggressive then stop at 11030. Target 10900.