In my last weekly post, I expected
I take consolidation with a negative bias view. The pattern target is 10860. I sense that this week, NIFTY is likely to hit that zone. I need to see if this happens with momentum.
There should not be any closing above 11130, If there is any closing above this level, short bias is challenged.
If NIFTY crosses above, 11195-11200, actually bias is on the long side.
Summary : Bearish consolidation view with target 10860-10900, reversal in view at 11200.
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Review : The said target got hit on Monday and then actually reversal and close above 11200.
My observations for the week
1. NIFTY gained 1.27% for the week. It clearly showed support at 10900 levels.
2. BANK NIFTY was much weaker and did not recover with NIFTY.
3. VIX continues to drop. It dropped -6.68% this week.
4. Reliance Industries jumped very strongly in the pullback and is now forming a bullish flag which indicates further upside.
5. IT and Pharma both indexes likely to consolidate.
6. NIFTY valuations and returns are very stretched.
7. FII and DII data soft.
8.11000-11500 is the level option players are converging to.
My view for next week
1. NIFTY managed to close above 11200. Considering Reliance Industries chart, I think there can be another 5% upside in Reliance. If Banks and some other stocks are supportive, then the 11400-11450 zone is possible.
2. If this happens, I’ll still treat that as formation of intermediate high.
3. If NIFTY turns from here then I’ll watch how it goes back /breaks the 10900 level. This will be a good indication of the intermediate top.
My trade plan for the week.
Everyday, there can be updates based on the price action. But the rough plan I have in mind is.
Possibility 1 : On Monday, observe the price action in the first hour. Any gap up or break of 10250, will confirm bullish inclination and further upside possible in the 11380-11440 zone.
Eventually, when and if Reliance has reached around 2300 levels and NIFTY in this zone, then I’ll enter positional short- reversal trade with SL of 100 points.
Reversal trade has to show results immediately, because it is made near climax. So if NIFTY is consolidating on a daily time frame, better to exit the trade. Then mostly ride the way back towards 11000.
Possibility 2 : Monday actually opens flat or down and again some more consolidation in the region. For this possibility in the range 11130-11250. Intraday scalping opportunities. Also then wait for breakout or breakdown.
August 3 to 7 View
I take consolidation with a negative bias view. The pattern target is 10860. I sense that this week, NIFTY is likely to hit that zone. I need to see if this happens with momentum.
There should not be any closing above 11130, If there is any closing above this level, short bias is challenged.
If NIFTY crosses above, 11195-11200, actually bias is on the long side.
Summary : Bearish consolidation view with target 10860-10900, reversal in view at 11200.
====================================================================
Review : The said target got hit on Monday and then actually reversal and close above 11200.
My observations for the week
1. NIFTY gained 1.27% for the week. It clearly showed support at 10900 levels.
2. BANK NIFTY was much weaker and did not recover with NIFTY.
3. VIX continues to drop. It dropped -6.68% this week.
4. Reliance Industries jumped very strongly in the pullback and is now forming a bullish flag which indicates further upside.
5. IT and Pharma both indexes likely to consolidate.
6. NIFTY valuations and returns are very stretched.
7. FII and DII data soft.
8.11000-11500 is the level option players are converging to.
My view for next week
1. NIFTY managed to close above 11200. Considering Reliance Industries chart, I think there can be another 5% upside in Reliance. If Banks and some other stocks are supportive, then the 11400-11450 zone is possible.
2. If this happens, I’ll still treat that as formation of intermediate high.
3. If NIFTY turns from here then I’ll watch how it goes back /breaks the 10900 level. This will be a good indication of the intermediate top.
My trade plan for the week.
Everyday, there can be updates based on the price action. But the rough plan I have in mind is.
Possibility 1 : On Monday, observe the price action in the first hour. Any gap up or break of 10250, will confirm bullish inclination and further upside possible in the 11380-11440 zone.
Eventually, when and if Reliance has reached around 2300 levels and NIFTY in this zone, then I’ll enter positional short- reversal trade with SL of 100 points.
Reversal trade has to show results immediately, because it is made near climax. So if NIFTY is consolidating on a daily time frame, better to exit the trade. Then mostly ride the way back towards 11000.
Possibility 2 : Monday actually opens flat or down and again some more consolidation in the region. For this possibility in the range 11130-11250. Intraday scalping opportunities. Also then wait for breakout or breakdown.
August 3 to 7 View
