Hello Traders, as I wrote yesterday..:"...and we have just one more up sequence to complete wave v (blue) and a decline is just to look for. Please note the divergence at RSI and NIFTY!" So exact this happens that morning by made a new high at 10067.25 and thereafter NIFTY reversal sharp to 9955.85, just some points below my targetzone of ~9700! NIFTY played out the divergence as shown on the chart yesterday. So what to await in the next trading hours? To follow the bullish pattern NIFTY may has endet wave iii (blue) and also wave iv (blue) as it declined to 9955.85, the wave 4 level of one lesser degree and the 0.38 RT of the distance wave iii -wave ii! Both are common targets for a wave iv pullback! In this case NIFTY50 will advance within the next hours to a new high in a wave v of 1 to targets at ~ 10099 zone. Here a wave 1 of higher degree is done and a pullback in wave 2 has to occur. Notice both at last occuring Gap up at the chart! Gap`s not occur randomly. They tend to occur at the start of an advance, in the middle or at the end! I think after a nearly ~ 400 Point advance from 9687.55 we`re not at the start, and also not in the middle...! Todays a/d-Ratio was at 0.4 (14/35/1) the lowest within the past days! Maybe showing exhausting bulls power. Following the bearish case today a wave ii is done and we are still declining in wave iii of higher degree. Today wave ((1)) has started and need one mor down sequence to complete, there after a pullback in wave ((ii)) to ~ 10024 zone is to monitor. This view becomes support by monitoring the daily chart of the major Indexes, while all shown "bearish Engulfing" this tradingsession, a reversal pattern, which need to confirmed by tomorrows trading below the top at 10067.25 on a closing basis daily! VIX jumped today to 11.82 by EoD and is moving sideways as it look for now! Have agreat day ruebennase Questions and Comments are welcome! Note!---> This analysis can be wrong. It is just in my view the one with the most probabiltity with the Data which are available to me and by my interpretation of the EW Theory. If you trade this it is done by your own risk and decision! Keep that in Mind!!!! Data by NSE!
Hi... Just one query. Even in bearish case, is it not possible to have one more up move as wave v of c and that's where wave ii ends and wave iii begins post that. Please do reply.
ruebennase
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@tradeinvestindia,
I´m not right sure if understand correct. But in the bullsih case as a wave ((1)) has started today, we need may a down sequence to complete and thereafter a wave ((2)) up which end below todays high at 10067.25! Is this that what you meant?
Best Regards
Ruebennase
tradeinvestindia
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@ruebennase, not really. I am talking about bearish case of wave c of 4 not yet over. We are still in ii of c which is not yet over and will get over with one new high around 10100. Pay this up move we start 1 of iii of c. Is it possible.
tradeinvestindia
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@ruebennase,
Hi. Awaiting your fresh update. As expected we followed the bull count and surpassed earlier high as well as above 10100. What's next ??? Is there more upside or can expect wave 2 retracement or bigger falls.
mattytb84
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IMO this is a megaphone topping pattern, anticipating false break to new highs and major reversal
tradeinvestindia
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@mattytb84,
Hi we broke new high today. How much more upside are you anticipating before this starts cracking....
mattytb84
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@tradeinvestindia, I think it should be capped by 10400, unfortunately with these blow off market tops that i believe are occurring a lot of the technicals and levels go out the window because in theory its the last gasp move before a major correction, it needs to take stops and get people long believing its gonna keep ripping. The NKY is a prime example of that today, i was anticipating the 21050 level capping that but its just blown through and continued. I'm expecting each of the equity markets to follow similar price action.
mattytb84
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@tradeinvestindia, Just taken a short position here with a very tight stop, if it continues to head higher i will wait for a better confirmation
tradeinvestindia
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@mattytb84,
Ohhhh.... And I covered my shorts as you suggested 10400 levels. I was holding since 9800. Anyways will enter again on Monday. By the way in this pattern what should be the trigger for entering shorts.
mattytb84
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@tradeinvestindia, I meant that is the max level i am looking for it to go, i am looking to add short between here and there on a reversal candle. Ideally a daily or weekly false break and reversal back within the megaphone. GL