We have analyst forecast data available on TradingView for stocks, but not for indexes. This idea shows how to forecast an index using forecast data available for its constituents on forecast tab.
- Get list of Maximum, Minimum and Average 1-year price estimates of constituents from Forecast tab
- Get weights of constituents of the index (from exchange or third party website)
- Calculate % changes required from current price of constituents to achieve max, min and avg targets
- Apply the weighted sum of % changes to the current value of the index to get index's estimate of max, min and avg
The table below shows data for NIFTY on 2nd May 2023 and average 1-year estimate for that (excel table) -
A B C D E F G
# Symbol Weight Price Avg Avg % Weighted Avg %
(E1-D1)/D1*C1
1 NSE:RELIANCE 10.32 2441.05 2817.4 15.42 1.591090719
2 NSE:HDFCBANK 9.38 1687.25 1993.1 18.13 1.700324789
3 NSE:ICICIBANK 8.08 922.1 1125.25 22.03 1.780123631
4 NSE:HDFC 6.34 2790 3080.1 10.4 0.6592236559
5 NSE:INFY 5.63 1277.45 1483.45 16.13 0.9078868057
6 NSE:ITC 4.73 424.45 438.05 3.2 0.1515561315
7 NSE:TCS 4.16 3219.4 3467.8 7.72 0.3209740946
8 NSE:LT 3.6 2384.45 2448.7 2.69 0.09700350186
9 NSE:KOTAKBANK 3.59 1921.15 2134.1 11.08 0.3979337897
10 NSE:AXISBANK 2.97 870.65 1098.15 26.13 0.7760581175
11 NSE:SBIN 2.8 575.3 717.15 24.66 0.6903876238
12 NSE:HINDUNILVR 2.77 2451.7 2854.45 16.43 0.4550383407
13 NSE:BHARTIARTL 2.47 790.2 903.55 14.34 0.3543084029
14 NSE:BAJFINANCE 2.11 6249.15 7071.65 13.16 0.2777137691
15 NSE:ASIANPAINT 1.65 2899.55 3046.05 5.05 0.08336638444
16 NSE:MARUTI 1.44 8776.85 10321.1 17.59 0.2533619693
17 NSE:HCLTECH 1.42 1067.55 1152.85 7.99 0.1134616646
18 NSE:TITAN 1.39 2663.85 2870.35 7.75 0.107751938
19 NSE:M&M 1.38 1237.3 1535.6 24.11 0.3327034672
20 NSE:SUNPHARMA 1.34 973.05 1171.3 20.37 0.2730126921
21 NSE:TATASTEEL 1.1 110.3 125.3 13.6 0.1495920218
22 NSE:ULTRACEMCO 1.1 7456.6 8389.3 12.51 0.1375922002
23 NSE:TATAMOTORS 1.08 480.25 520.9 8.46 0.09141488808
24 NSE:NTPC 1.03 175.6 202.65 15.4 0.1586645786
25 NSE:POWERGRID 1.02 240.1 247.7 3.17 0.03228654727
26 NSE:NESTLEIND 0.98 21745.8 21898 0.7 0.006859055866
27 NSE:INDUSINDBK 0.95 1150.9 1417.55 23.17 0.2201038318
28 NSE:BAJAJFINSV 0.92 1349.05 1576.25 16.84 0.1549416256
29 NSE:JSWSTEEL 0.86 737.9 694.4 -5.9 -0.05069792655
30 NSE:GRASIM 0.8 1739.55 1919.9 10.37 0.08294099049
31 NSE:HINDALCO 0.8 446.15 520.4 16.64 0.1331390788
32 NSE:TECHM 0.8 1053.45 1105.6 4.95 0.03960320851
33 NSE:ONGC 0.78 164.25 179.5 9.28 0.07242009132
34 NSE:DRREDDY 0.76 4950.4 4936.55 -0.28 -0.002126292825
35 NSE:WIPRO 0.72 388.35 386.3 -0.53 -0.003800695249
36 NSE:BRITANNIA 0.68 4511.05 4907.4 8.79 0.05974617883
38 NSE:ADANIENT 0.66 1919.85 1919 -0.04 -0.0002922103289
37 NSE:HDFCLIFE 0.66 544.5 640.95 17.71 0.1169090909
39 NSE:ADANIPORTS 0.65 681.5 801.65 17.63 0.1145964784
40 NSE:SBILIFE 0.65 1150.9 1518.05 31.9 0.2073572856
41 NSE:BAJAJ-AUTO 0.63 4498 4606.35 2.41 0.01517574478
42 NSE:COALINDIA 0.62 236.1 255.05 8.03 0.04976281237
43 NSE:CIPLA 0.6 917.7 1107.25 20.65 0.1239293887
46 NSE:APOLLOHOSP 0.57 4490.8 5212.9 16.08 0.09165338024
44 NSE:EICHERMOT 0.57 3356.15 3663.05 9.14 0.05212311726
45 NSE:TATACONSUM 0.57 779.6 853.4 9.47 0.05395844023
47 NSE:DIVISLAB 0.52 3253.7 2911.25 -10.52 -0.05472969235
48 NSE:UPL 0.48 752.5 986.8 31.14 0.1494538206
49 NSE:BPCL 0.43 361.1 377.85 4.64 0.01994599834
50 NSE:HEROMOTOCO 0.42 2495.9 2838.85 13.74 0.0577102448
NSE:NIFTY 18147.65 20616 [D51*(1+SUM(G1:G50)/100)]
Please note that -
- Constituents and their weightages change frequently
- Analysts go wrong many times and keep updating the targets
- This is only useful to know approximate range for the next 1 year
- Not all constituents end with maximum or minimum target simultaneously
- You could use your own constituent targets to arrive at your own index value
- Difficult to maintain this as a pine script indicator, fixed idea with 2nd May 2023 data
- ADANIENT estimates are not available, shouldn't make much difference to the arrived value