they wanted a longer description so.. long pivot on deck, bullish divergences multiple timeframes. I like to have fibs AND geometry supporting the count as shown on the chart but it lacks geometry. the 5-3-5 zz we want to see in wave Z is a harder sell but im running with this anyway. Weekly timeframe looks obvious but we can nit pick on tiny timeframes.
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Going to repeat what I said on stocktwits.
Hard to confirm but it's possible this is working w5 of an ending contracting diagonal coming down from that bounce to 6.70 last week or whatever it was. If this is the case expect a final punch down back around the low.
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We got the final punch down back to the low as expected and mentioned in the previous update to potentially complete the ending contracting diagonal wave 5 on smaller timeframes. It doesn't look ideal as the contracting wedge looks almost like a parallel channel and can debate about counting out the 535 structures on the 1 minute. We will probably find out Monday or Tuesday if this is the precise pivot point or not. Monthly and weekly candle look weak but we've seen reversals after bad candlesticks. Good luck all.
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i'll be adding early this week under $4.50 close to $4.15 target. the FOMO is hitting hard now. Instead of going to the 1:1 extension where we didn't really have an apparent count and no geometric support we now are at the bottom of the macro channel at the 1.272 extension and it looks like the elliot coount is there. the 9866 chart looks more bullish to me while the NYSE NIO chart is a bit more tricky.
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erm i messed up that labeling lol.. whats shown in the picture should be the entire 5-3-5 zigzag Z wave.. 5 down then up where i put the 2.. finishing 5 more down
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new primary count. I don't like the wxyxz, particularly the Y wave and did not get a good reaction off the 127.2% target for the proposed Z wave. the 100% level was equal to the 0.618 log retrace so it was hard to tell if it was responding to the fib extension for proposed Z or just .618. I believe that there was a ~16 month sideways correction that started around $13.01 in March 2022 that lasted until the dead cat bounce completed in July 2023 around $16.18. the macro structure being WXY shown in the chart. fib extension targets shown below. I'm going to try and check subwaves for macro X to see if its likely we can pivot any earlier than the 1:1 at $3.14 and I'm just holding as an 'investor' and not trading this with an average just above $5.
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1.) also keep an eye on the weekly RSI low when the correction began in March 2022 and compare the current weekly RSI low to that. Pay attention to that divergence holding or breaking. this is a component for this WXY count to be valid imo.
2.) the parallel channel is broken so i'm looking at the andrews pitchfork using the WXY pivots and the reaction seems decent but extremely precise. zooming in you can see we were rejecting off the underside of the median line last week when we tested previous support at $4.78
After a drop from 50 to 5 I do not think that we will see any recovery at all... But good luck!
devigriffel
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There’s no where to go anymore(down), it’s allready undervalued company. I love to see how the whole world is afraid of Nio :) well it should be!! I don’t give a F how other car manufacturers survive this. EU and USA are just too corrupted. It will hurt them a lot and I will enjoy it. Asia is and will be the most advanced EV maker in the future, they are so many steps ahead of us, they have done their R&D in proper time. Tesla can make their moon rockets and ride to hell with them :)
mvhtree
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@devigriffel going to 0 because Ev are useless technology. who is going to pay twice as much for less.... plus the batteries are pollution too. To the scrap yard soon as these climate idiots get thrown out power
aialchemist
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I have reasons to believe that $4.50 is the bottom support
tealeafbud
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Thanks glad to see your analysis lines up with mine!
aoinoikaz
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Autistic TA
rune93
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"erm i messed up that labeling lol" will come in a few weeks when this crap goes to 0
Drunkmonk
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I can see how macro could appear to be wxy where x retraced .382 & we rebounded off the median line of the wxy channel. The only other decent count I've seen is a small variation of this wxyxz.
rbt11
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$24 would be very brave for nio
Drunkmonk
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We got the final punch down back to the low as expected and mentioned in the previous update to potentially complete the ending contracting diagonal wave 5 on smaller timeframes. It doesn't look ideal as the contracting wedge looks almost like a parallel channel and can debate about counting out the 535 structures on the 1 minute. We will probably find out Monday or Tuesday if this is the precise pivot point or not. Good luck all.